This article was written 草莓传媒鈥檚 news partner, , and republished with permission.
Arlington and other localities around the D.C. region have enough room to add the housing necessary to keep pace with the Amazon-driven expected over the coming years 鈥� but actually realizing that potential won鈥檛 be easy, regional planners say.
Researchers with the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, a coalition of local leaders, have that the region needs to add about 100,000 more homes through 2045, or else risk seeing even higher and into the outer suburbs.
Their latest data, unveiled yesterday (Wednesday), suggest that localities across Northern Virginia, Maryland and D.C. have already put plans in place to meet even that large number.
The vast majority of that work was completed before Amazon announced its plans to head to Arlington (to say nothing of the as well), but officials are confident that region鈥檚 population boom of the last few years has spurred the right kind of planning work to account for the tech giant鈥檚 arrival as well.
But planners are also cautioning the region鈥檚 leaders that everything from land-use policies to the high cost of construction to 鈥渘ot-in-my-backyard鈥� sentiments are sure to confound their efforts to actually meet that demand for new housing.
鈥淲e do think we have the capacity in our long-range plans to get there,鈥� Andrew Trueblood, D.C.鈥檚 acting planning director, told the MWCOG Board of Directors Wednesday. 鈥淏ut that鈥檚 the first hurdle and there鈥檚 a whole number of hurdles to get past.鈥�
Perhaps unsurprisingly, restrictive zoning and land-use policies are one of the chief obstacles planners identified for local leaders to tackle as they seek to add more homes. Many activists and Arlington officials have already begun in the county, and that鈥檚 included the fraught topic of previously reserved for single-family homes.
But those considerations are only one piece of the puzzle, according to the COG鈥檚 analysts.
Trueblood pointed out that the region is getting better at concentrating housing in 鈥渁ctivity centers鈥� around Metro stops or other public transit options. But as land close to transit becomes more scarce, it also becomes more expensive, ramping up the costs of the sort of development planners are most enthusiastic about encouraging.
SUBSCRIBE TODAY | Like this article? Read more by subscribing to today.
Trueblood added that the 鈥渦nstable construction cost market鈥� has also complicated other development efforts. Other developers have been frustrated by to dense developments, particularly when it comes in the form of legal action targeting even 鈥渂y-right鈥� developments, which don鈥檛 require extensive government review.
But, in Northern Virginia particularly, officials say that a lack of interest from developers is far from an issue.
鈥淲e are not having trouble with the development community coming and wishing to develop,鈥� said Sharon Bulova, the chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. 鈥淏ut making sure that those new residential homes and units are affordable is really the challenge.鈥�
Arlington is certainly grappling with that issue as well. County officials are locked in a debate about the best way to meet their own affordable housing goals 鈥� possibilities range from setting aside to opening up zoning rules to allow a of housing types.
Helen McElveen, Alexandria鈥檚 housing director, expressed optimism that the private sector will step up in some regard on that front 鈥� she noted that dominant Crystal City developer JBG Smith has in funding more affordable homes.
But she also cautioned that local governments themselves will always have a dominant role to play in subsidizing apartments affordable to the lowest income renters.
鈥淎ffordability won鈥檛 happen unless governments act,鈥� McElveen said. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 live in a market with a lot of affordable stock or even workforce stock being delivered鈥� We know we can neither build our way out of this nor preserve everything.鈥�
The COG鈥檚 analysts expect that their next steps are to study 鈥渢he specific challenges (public and private) to developing more housing鈥� in those 鈥渁ctivity centers鈥� around mass transit options, and deliver recommendations for overcoming those issues.
That will surely take some time to sort out, but planners say they鈥檙e well aware of the urgent need for answers to the questions.
鈥淚f we can not keep up with the growth, employers will not expand and our region鈥檚 growth is hurt,鈥� Trueblood said. 鈥淏ut if we can produce the housing needed for the region to grow and for economy to be vibrant, we鈥檒l reduce the displacement pressures facing everyone.鈥�
