SEOUL, South Korea (AP) 鈥� As war spreads across the Middle East, U.S. rivals and allies in Asia are preparing for the consequences, which include possible economic shock and long-term security threats.
Here’s a look at how the fighting in the Middle East is impacting the Koreas, Japan and China.
North Korea
At a major political conference last month, North Korean leader insisted the country鈥檚 decades-long pursuit of nuclear weapons was the 鈥渃orrect鈥� choice, despite crippling isolation and scarce resources.
The U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran will only reinforce that belief.
North Korea鈥檚 leadership likely watched uneasily as the strikes killed Iran鈥檚 supreme leader. The attack followed a U.S. operation in January that captured Venezuelan President .
Pyongyang鈥檚 Foreign Ministry has condemned the attacks on Iran as illegal and a 鈥渕ost despicable鈥� violation of sovereignty. Notably, it didn鈥檛 mention the death of .
Similar strikes to take out North Korea鈥檚 leadership would be far riskier and less likely to succeed, said Hong Min, an analyst at South Korea鈥檚 Institute for National Unification.
Unlike Iran, North Korea has followed through on its nuclear ambitions. Its expansive arsenal contains dozens of warheads, with a range of delivery systems threatening Asian U.S. allies and potentially capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. It would be difficult to eliminate North Korea鈥檚 capabilities in a single wave of preemptive strikes, and would leave open the possibility that surviving systems could be used to Japan or even America.
In his first public appearance since the war began, Kim last week inspected sea trials of his prized new warship and tests of what state media called . Some analysts say the display may have been meant to showcase his military capabilities after the killing of Khamenei and the U.S. sinking of Iranian naval assets 鈥� signaling that, unlike Iran, his ships could carry nuclear warheads.
Attacking North Korea would also be complicated by its geographic proximity to China and 鈥� Washington鈥檚 most significant rivals 鈥� with whom Kim has been deepening ties as he seeks a more assertive presence in the region.
The U.S. military actions on Iran and Venezuela both came despite active negotiations. Analysts have differing views on how that might affect North Korea鈥檚 desire for diplomacy with the United States, which following the collapse of a summit between Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump.
At February鈥檚 ruling party congress, Kim with the United States, reiterating Pyongyang鈥檚 earlier calls that Washington drop its demands for the North鈥檚 denuclearization as a precondition for reviving talks.
Hong said that while Kim is likely to maintain that position, the attack on Iran may have deepened his distrust of Washington and the leader could raise the bar for negotiations.
But Park Won Gon, a professor at Seoul鈥檚 Ewha Womans University, said Kim could feel greater urgency to seek a deal with Trump, viewing their unresolved diplomacy as a risk.
South Korean officials have suggested that Trump鈥檚 expected visit to China in late March or April may provide a possible opening with Pyongyang.
South Korea
South Korea, heavily dependent on trade and imported fuel, is alarmed by Iran鈥檚 attacks on energy infrastructure and attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly .
The war is also heightening unease in Seoul about its . The Trump administration has shown a willingness to act militarily without broad coordination with allies.
The United States for decades has pledged full military 鈥� including nuclear 鈥� protection for its allies and stations about 28,000 troops in South Korea to deter North Korea. While a major reduction in that commitment is unlikely, Seoul must now consider the risk of being drawn into potential conflicts triggered by unilateral U.S. action, including beyond the Korean Peninsula, Hong said.
鈥淲hether it鈥檚 Taiwan, North Korea or the U.S.-China competition, there have long been concerns in South Korea that the Trump administration could make overly aggressive decisions without fully considering the potentially serious consequences for its allies,鈥� said Hong. 鈥淭hose concerns are now significant.鈥�
South Korea must 鈥渃learly define the actions it could take鈥� under different scenarios, he said.
Japan
Japan, another key U.S. ally in Asia, is also wary of Trump鈥檚 aggressive military actions and worried about any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.
While Tokyo has backed U.S. efforts to curb Iran鈥檚 nuclear development, the war has raised questions about its legitimacy and caused skepticism about Washington鈥檚 credibility as an ally, said Mitsuru Fukuda, a professor at Nihon University.
and other senior officials have voiced strong support for U.S.-Iran negotiations but stopped short of endorsing the U.S.-Israeli strikes. Tokyo has shown no interest in military involvement, but some experts believe the conflict could bolster Takaichi鈥檚 push for a stronger military and expanded weapons sales.
U.S. nuclear deterrence remains crucial to Japan鈥檚 security amid worry about an increasingly assertive China and North Korea. Although global turmoil, including Russia鈥檚 war in Ukraine, has revived debate over Japan acquiring nuclear weapons, domestic support remains low because of legal and political constraints.
China
China could see the Iran war as an opportunity to carve out a more assertive role in the Middle East by styling itself as a more reliable power broker than the United States, said Seo Chang-bae, a professor at Busan鈥檚 Pukyung National University.
Beijing may view the U.S. military actions in Venezuela and Iran 鈥� both major oil suppliers to China 鈥� as partly intended to counter China, experts say.
While steadily expanding trade and technology ties with Gulf states, China has sought to position itself as a regional counterweight, most notably by to normalize relations. It’s part of a broader push to strengthen its global influence and challenge dollar-based financial orders.
Although Beijing may pursue geopolitical 鈥渟pillover gains,鈥� a prolonged conflict would harm China鈥檚 trade interests, Seo said. China could also study U.S. warfare capabilities and accelerate the integration of artificial intelligence into its military, he said.
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AP writer Mari Yamaguchi contributed from Tokyo.
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