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Unearthing the secrets of Groundhog Day and Punxsutawney Phil

Groundhog Club co-handler John Griffiths co-handler Al Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 133rd celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa. Saturday, Feb. 2, 2019. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast an early spring.
Groundhog Club co-handler John Griffiths co-handler Al Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 133rd celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa. Saturday, Feb. 2, 2019. Phil’s handlers said that the groundhog has forecast an early spring. (AP/Gene J. Puskar)
FILE - In this Feb. 2, 2020 file photo, Groundhog Club co-handler Al Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil during the 134th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa. The coronavirus pandemic means Groundhog Day won't be the same in the Pennsylvania town long associated with a prognosticating rodent. Organizers said Punxsutawney Phil will predict whether spring will come early or winter will last longer in 2021 without the usual crowds who gather at Gobbler's Knob.  Phil and his inner circle on Feb. 2 will deliver the prediction virtually by means of a live internet steam and website, organizers said.
FILE – In this Feb. 2, 2020 file photo, Groundhog Club co-handler Al Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil during the 134th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa. The coronavirus pandemic means Groundhog Day won’t be the same in the Pennsylvania town long associated with a prognosticating rodent. Organizers said Punxsutawney Phil will predict whether spring will come early or winter will last longer in 2021 without the usual crowds who gather at Gobbler’s Knob. Phil and his inner circle on Feb. 2 will deliver the prediction virtually by means of a live internet steam and website, organizers said. (AP/Barry Reeger)
Cardboard cutouts of groundhog enthusiasts decorate Gobbler's Knob for the 135th celebration of Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney, Pa., Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2021. The event was held without anyone in attendance due to potential COVID-19 risks.
Cardboard cutouts of groundhog enthusiasts decorate Gobbler’s Knob for the 135th celebration of Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney, Pa., Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2021. This year’s event was held without anyone in attendance due to potential COVID-19 risks. (AP/Barry Reeger)
A group wearing top hats behind Potomac Phil helped the groundhog with his predictions.
A group wearing top hats behind Potomac Phil helped the groundhog with his predictions. (草莓传媒/Valerie Bonk)
Groundhogs belong to a group of large ground squirrels known as marmots.
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Groundhog Club co-handler John Griffiths co-handler Al Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 133rd celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa. Saturday, Feb. 2, 2019. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast an early spring.
FILE - In this Feb. 2, 2020 file photo, Groundhog Club co-handler Al Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil during the 134th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa. The coronavirus pandemic means Groundhog Day won't be the same in the Pennsylvania town long associated with a prognosticating rodent. Organizers said Punxsutawney Phil will predict whether spring will come early or winter will last longer in 2021 without the usual crowds who gather at Gobbler's Knob.  Phil and his inner circle on Feb. 2 will deliver the prediction virtually by means of a live internet steam and website, organizers said.
Cardboard cutouts of groundhog enthusiasts decorate Gobbler's Knob for the 135th celebration of Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney, Pa., Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2021. The event was held without anyone in attendance due to potential COVID-19 risks.
A group wearing top hats behind Potomac Phil helped the groundhog with his predictions.

After January鈥檚 snow and bitterly cold temperatures, many in the D.C. area are probably hoping Punxsutawney Phil doesn鈥檛 see his shadow on Groundhog Day this Wednesday.

The annual event, taking place Feb. 2, is seen as a quirky, albeit unscientific prediction of when spring will arrive. If the groundhog in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, emerges from his burrow at sunrise and sees his shadow, winter will be around for another six weeks. If the groundhog doesn鈥檛 see his shadow, spring will arrive early.

A group called the Groundhog Club handles the festivities 鈥 and Phil, who is snatched up into the waiting arms of its president. According to the club, after seeing or not seeing his shadow, Phil then reveals his secret in 鈥淕roundhogese,鈥 a language only understood by the president, who then translates Phil鈥檚 prediction to the world.

There is even a local iteration of Punxsutawney Phil in the form of Potomac Phil, although unlike his living, furry Pennsylvania compatriot, Potomac Phil is a stuffed groundhog who makes his weather proclamation in front of D.C.鈥檚 Dupont Circle fountain. , he is 鈥淲ashington’s most famous marmot鈥 鈥 a 鈥渉umble, unflinching prognosticator.鈥

Various states also celebrate with their own groundhogs. While the groundhogs are usually given manly names, in 2020, New York鈥檚 Staten Island Chuck was actually a female groundhog named Charlotte. She didn鈥檛 enjoy a good fate, however: Former New York Mayor Bill de Blasio accidentally dropped her, and she died a week later.

Given that the shy mammal probably doesn鈥檛 relish the limelight 鈥 or being dropped 鈥 the animal rights group creating a robotic Phil that acts like a groundhog, but, because he鈥檚 powered by artificial intelligence, can more accurately gauge the weather. No word on whether the Groundhog Club will ever ditch the tradition and go high-tech.

While Groundhog Day is a distinctly American tradition, it has international roots. Legend has it that it was brought over from German immigrants who settled in Pennsylvania in the 1700s. It appears to have stemmed from Candlemas Day, a Christian holiday celebrated in Europe on Feb. 2 鈥 between the winter solstice and spring equinox.

It wasn鈥檛 until the late 1800s that stalking a groundhog for his prophetic powers became a thing in rural Pennsylvania. But the revelry was brief for the groundhogs, which were eaten for dinner afterward.

Groundhogs are no longer on the menu, and today Punxsutawney Phil draws mobs of onlookers and cameras as he鈥檚 hoisted up by his top-hatted handlers, like the iconic scene from 鈥淭he Lion King.鈥

Punxsutawney Phil鈥檚 own fame skyrocketed with the 1993 film 鈥淕roundhog Day,鈥 in which Bill Murray’s character finds himself stuck in a small town, experiencing the same day over and over again. After the film came out, crowds swelled as thousands made the trek to Gobbler鈥檚 Knob in Punxsutawney to watch the annual spectacle.

While the film popularized Groundhog Day, the groundhog itself isn鈥檛 all that popular with everyone. It鈥檚 a rodent 鈥 a cute one, but a rodent nonetheless 鈥 that belongs to a group of large ground squirrels known as marmots. Groundhogs, which weigh about 20 pounds, are excellent burrowers and feast on commonly grown vegetables, making them a nuisance to farmers and gardeners.

They鈥檙e also pretty lousy weather forecasters. According to the , on average, Phil has gotten his prediction right 40% of the time over the past 10 years. Even his first prediction in 1887 only got it right for some regions and not for others. So, basically you could toss a coin and have about the same odds.

Then again, groundhogs aren鈥檛 emerging from their dens to predict the weather. They鈥檙e coming out of hibernation to mate. Other than finding a mate in the spring, though, groundhogs are solitary creatures. When autumn rolls back around, they build winter burrows that can have multiple exits and chambers, according to the National Geographic, which notes that groundhogs are 鈥渢rue hibernators,鈥 going into a dormant state that causes their body temperature and heart rate to plummet.

Punxsutawney Phil also goes into a deep sleep, although he does it in his own temperature-controlled human-made burrow 鈥 befitting his outsize mythical reputation.

And unlike his commoner brethren that go by nicknames like woodchuck and whistlepig, Punxsutawney聽Phil boasts a much grander title. His full name? Punxsutawney Phil, Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators, and Weather Prophet Extraordinary.

Anna Gawel

Anna Gawel joined 草莓传媒 in 2020 and works in both the radio and digital departments. Anna Gawel has spent much of her career as the managing editor of The Washington Diplomat, which has been the flagship publication of D.C.鈥檚 diplomatic community for over 25 years.

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