PARIS (AP) 鈥� Europe has 鈥渕aybe six weeks or so鈥� of remaining jet fuel supplies, the head of the International Energy Agency said Thursday in a wide-ranging interview, warning of possible flight cancellations 鈥渟oon鈥� if oil supplies remain .
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol painted a sobering picture of the global repercussions of what he called 鈥渢he largest energy crisis we have ever faced,鈥� stemming from the pinch-off of oil, gas and other vital supplies through the .
鈥淚n the past there was a group called 鈥楧ire Straits.鈥� It鈥檚 a dire strait now, and it is going to have major implications for the global economy. And the longer it goes, the worse it will be for the economic growth and inflation around the world,鈥� he told The Associated Press.
The impact will be 鈥渉igher petrol (gasoline) prices, higher gas prices, high electricity prices,鈥� said Birol, speaking in his Paris office looking out over the Eiffel Tower.
Economic pain will be felt unevenly and 鈥渢he countries who will suffer the most will not be those whose voice are heard a lot. It will be mainly the developing countries. Poorer countries in Asia, in Africa and in Latin America,鈥� said the Turkish economist and energy expert who has led the IEA since 2015.
But without a settlement of the Iran war that permanently reopens the Strait of Hormuz, 鈥淓verybody is going to suffer,鈥� he added.
鈥淪ome countries may be richer than the others. Some countries may have more energy than the others, but no country, no country is immune to this crisis,鈥� he said.
‘Slow growth or even recession’
Nearly 20% of the world鈥檚 traded oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime. Birol warned that not reopening the waterway within weeks could compound the repercussions for global energy supplies.
鈥淚n Europe, we have maybe six weeks or so (of) jet fuel left,鈥� he said. 鈥淚f we are not able to open the Strait of Hormuz … I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel.鈥�
Dutch airline KLM and U.K.-based budget carrier easyJet said Thursday that they were not experiencing current fuel shortages, without commenting further on the IEA鈥檚 warning. Meanwhile, U.S. carrier Delta Air Lines 鈥� which frequently flies to destinations across Europe 鈥� said it was aware of the continent’s “potential jet fuel supply issue鈥� and monitoring the situation, although it didn’t expect immediate impacts. Still, all three airlines are among those that have already seen eat into their budgets.
KLM is cutting 160 flights to and from Amsterdam鈥檚 Schiphol airport next month, accounting for about 1% of its total European routes. The airline cited 鈥渞ising kerosene costs,鈥� and said a limited number of flights are 鈥渘o longer financially viable to operate.鈥�
Travelers are already paying the consequences. Beyond flight cancellations, some carriers are increasing .
Birol added: 鈥淢any government leaders tell me that if Hormuz is not open until (the) end of May, many countries 鈥� starting from the weaker economies 鈥� are going to face huge challenges, and this will go from the high inflation numbers to coming close to slow growth or even to recession in some cases.鈥�
Birol spoke out against the so-called 鈥渢oll booth鈥� system that to some ships, letting them travel through the strait for a fee. He said allowing that to become more permanent would run the risk of setting a precedent that could then be applied to other waterways, including the vital Malacca Strait in Asia.
鈥淚f we change it once, it may be difficult to get it back,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t will be difficult to have a toll system here, applied here, but not there.鈥�
鈥淚 would like to see that the oil flows unconditionally from the point A to point B,鈥� he said.
Damage for Persian Gulf energy facilities
More than 110 oil-laden tankers and over 15 carriers loaded with liquefied natural gas are waiting in the Persian Gulf and could help ease the energy crisis if they could escape through the Strait of Hormuz to world markets, Birol said, adding: 鈥淏ut it is not enough.鈥�
Even with a peace deal, war-damage to energy facilities means it could be many months before preconflict levels of production are restored, he said.
鈥淥ver 80 key assets in the region have been damaged. And out of these 80, more than one-third are severely or very severely damaged,鈥� he said.
鈥淚t will be extremely optimistic to believe that it will very quick,鈥� Birol said. 鈥淚t will take gradually, gradually, up to two years to come back where we were before the war.鈥�
鈥楧ark shadow鈥� of geopolitics
Birol said it is incomprehensible that 鈥渁 couple of hundred men with guns鈥� 鈥� apparently referring to Iranian forces 鈥� are able to hold hostage the global economy. He said his Paris-based agency, which advises governments on energy policy and helped coordinate earlier in the crisis, has warned for years about the critical importance of the Strait of Hormuz.
The global shock could spur the embrace of other energy technologies, including nuclear power, and 鈥渨ill reshape the global energy map for the next years to come,鈥� he said.
On his office shelves, Birol has a couple of soccer balls 鈥� he’s a devoted supporter of the Turkish club Galatasaray 鈥� and other memorabilia, including a photo of his late father playing soccer, and reams of books. One in particular stood out for its timely title: 鈥淥il, Power and War.鈥�
鈥淓nergy and geopolitics have been always interwoven,鈥� Birol said. 鈥淏ut I have never, ever seen … such a dark and long shadow of geopolitics.鈥�
He added: “Unfortunately, energy is at the heart of many conflicts which, again, makes me, as an energy person, rather sad, to be honest.鈥�
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AP Business Writer Wyatte Grantham-Philips contributed from New York.
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