WASHINGTON 鈥� The Obama administration on Thursday as a part of a wide-ranging response to aggressive Russian cyber activity and harassment of U.S. diplomats inside Russia. This latest move, however, is just the latest in a tumultuous relationship between the countries.
The affected Russian diplomats, who reside in Washington and San Francisco, have been given three days to pack up and leave. In addition to declaring the Russian diplomats Persona Non Grata (PNG), two recreational compounds have been closed in Maryland and in New York.
The broader sanctions target five intelligence agencies and two top Russian government officials.
In a joint statement, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Bureau of Investigation said malicious cyber activity 鈥渂y Russian intelligence services is part of a decadelong campaign of cyber-enabled operations directed at the U.S. Government and its citizens.鈥�
The statement continued, 鈥淭hese cyber operations have included spearphishing, campaigns targeting government organizations, critical infrastructure, think tanks, universities, political organizations, and corporations; theft of information from these organizations; and the recent public release of some of this stolen information.鈥�
鈥淚n other countries, Russian intelligence services have also undertaken damaging and disruptive cyberattacks, including on critical infrastructure, in some cases masquerading as third parties or hiding behind false online personas designed to cause victim to misattribute the source of the attack,鈥� the statement said.
U.S. shift opened door for Russian malicious activity
In February 1993, about 18 months after the fall of the Soviet Union, Jim Woolsey, President Bill Clinton’s CIA director, testified before the Senate during his confirmation process. During the session, he was asked, 鈥淗ow do you see the post-Cold War environment?鈥�
Woolsey answered, 鈥淲e have slain a large dragon. But we live now in a jungle filled with a聽bewildering variety of poisonous snakes. And in many ways,聽the dragon was easier to keep track of.鈥�
In the ensuing years, 鈥渢he dragon鈥� — also known as Russia, according to intelligence experts 鈥� has taken advantage of a shift in focus by the U.S. government when it comes to its enemies.
David Kilcullen, former chief strategist in the State Department鈥檚 Counterterrorism Bureau and senior counterinsurgency adviser to Gen. David Petraeus during the Iraq War, told 草莓传媒 the shift provided time for the Russian government to regroup.
鈥淔or 10 years, from 1993 to March 2003, we lived in a Woolseyan security environment where we just worried about nonstates, failing states and weak states 鈥� things like peacekeeping in Bosnia or Rwanda or Somalia. We didn鈥檛 worry about state adversaries because the Russians were gone from the scene as a major adversary — temporarily.鈥�
The decision carried with it unforeseen consequences. During the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the subsequent war, U.S. adversaries began to learn about critical U.S. defense strategies.
Kilcullen, who also served as special adviser to former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, said the U.S. unintentionally divulged key defense tactics to its adversaries during the Iraq campaign.
鈥淎fter 2003, when President Bush invaded Iraq, we found ourselves massively struggling with a series of nonstate actors. We inadvertently showed all of our potential state adversaries how to fight us.鈥�
Origins of the Russian plotting
The post-Cold War Russian government led by Vladimir Putin was militarily weak, nearly broke and embarrassed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But Putin was determined to restore Russia鈥檚 image as a world player.
In 2008, Sergei Tretyakov, a former top KGB and SVR spy who later defected to the U.S., told 草莓传媒 during an interview that the 鈥渕ore Russia has money, more aggressive Russia will be [sic].鈥� He was referring to Russia’s plans to bounce back economically and use its global economic position to attack the U.S.
鈥淚鈥檓 not a Boy Scout; I鈥檓 not an alarmist, and I鈥檓 not an analyst. But, I know what the Russians are doing because I was part of that governmental team that developed those plans,鈥� Tretyakov said, divulging his own connection to the Russian plot for revenge. 鈥淚 know what their plans are and what the nature of today鈥檚 Russian government is.鈥�
鈥淩ussia will do everything it can to undermine American interests,鈥� Tretyakov added.
Tretyakov even pointed out in 2008 during the conflict between Russia and Georgia that Russia鈥檚 ultimate goal was to send a message to the U.S.
鈥淲hat happened in Caucasus was not against Georgia. Georgia is an important player, but not that important. The whole Russian escapade in Georgia is aimed against the USA,鈥� Tretyakov said.
鈥淲hy?鈥� he asked rhetorically. 鈥淏ecause Georgia is the closest and only real ally of the U.S. and NATO in the whole region of the Caucasus.鈥�
Tretyakov, who died unexpectedly in 2010, predicted, almost by chapter and verse, the Russian anti-U. S. activity that has unfolded in recent years. Having worked with U.S. intelligence after his defection from the Russian Mission in New York, Tretyakov claimed to have given thousands of documents to U.S. authorities regarding Russia鈥檚 plans and activities.
The U.S. intelligence has never commented publicly on his role in its activities regarding Russia.
鈥淚 watch Russian TV on a regular basis and I see the people I used to know, like Mr. Lavrov, Putin and others and it鈥檚 absolutely clear to me who was the real target of these actions [in Georgia], and it鈥檚 the USA,鈥� Tretyakov said during the 2008 interview 鈥� one of many with 草莓传媒.
The cycle continues
As the Obama administration proceeds with plans to retaliate against Russia for meddling in the 2016 election and other grievances, there is a growing concern that other U.S. adversaries might follow Russia鈥檚 lead during the transition period between presidents.
“If you’ll recall, right after the elections I predicted that our adversaries would try to take advantage of this transition period,鈥� said Mike Maness, director of Trapwire and a former CIA covert operative.
鈥淐hina is grabbing U.S. Navy drones, Russia is upping its game, and it鈥檚 probably not long before Iran and North Korea increase targeting of the U.S., and terror groups are probably not far behind.鈥�
Maness said on Thursday 鈥渉arassment of US government officials at embassies, provocations of our military forces, increases in espionage against critical infrastructure and personnel, anti-U.S. rhetoric in the foreign press are possible tactics that it might use.鈥�
Russia has already announced it will retaliate against whatever actions the Obama administration takes.
U.S. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday she is anticipating strong action from Russia.
鈥淲e are tired of the lie聽about the ‘Russian hackers,’ which is being poured down in the United States from the very top,” Zakharova said.
She warned that Russia would respond to any manner of “hostile steps” the U.S. undertook.
Zakharova said their response would address 鈥渁ny actions against the Russian diplomatic missions in the US which will immediately ricochet [sic] the American diplomats in Russia.”
