WASHINGTON 鈥� A recent poll concluded that if the election for Maryland Governor were held today, Republican Larry Hogan would win.
Pollster Patrick Gonzales, of Gonzales Research and Media Services, said 52 percent of the voters surveyed said they鈥檇 support incumbent Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican.
Thirty-six percent said they would support Democrat Ben Jealous, and 11 percent are undecided. One percent said they鈥檇 support a third-party candidate: either Green Party candidate Ian Schlackman or Libertarian candidate Shawn Quinn.
Among unaffiliated voters 鈥� in Maryland independents are considered unaffiliated 鈥� 60 percent said they鈥檇 vote for Hogan, 29 percent support Jealous, and 11 percent remain undecided.
In Maryland, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one, and if Hogan wins re-election, he鈥檒l be the first Republican to do so since Gov. Theodore McKeldin won re-election in 1954.
Right now, Gonzales said, Hogan has the support of 29 percent of registered Democrats. 鈥淚f he can do that in November, he will be re-elected,鈥� Gonzales said.
鈥淭his poll emphasizes that under Governor Hogan鈥檚 leadership, the overwhelming majority of Marylanders are confident that our state is headed in the right direction,” said Scott Sloofman, the communications director for Hogan’s re-election campaign. “This poll also shows that the more people come to understand Ben Jealous鈥� plan to dramatically raise taxes on every man, woman, and child in Maryland, the less they like him.鈥�
The Jealous campaign disputes the accuracy of the poll.
Keith Harris, a senior adviser to the Jealous campaign, issued a statement saying: 鈥淭hese poorly designed public polls have never accurately predicted or captured the mood of Marylanders, as we saw from the primary.鈥�
Gonzales called Jealous鈥檚 win in the June primary impressive. Jealous, the former president of the NAACP, beat Prince George鈥檚 County Executive Rushern Baker in the Democratic primary.
鈥淗e should have come out of that primary with some momentum,鈥� Gonzales said of Jealous. 鈥淸But] relative to his position two months ago, he鈥檚 gone nowhere.鈥�
Jealous has a favorable rating of 31 percent according to Gonzales, and a 33 percent unfavorable rating. 鈥淗e鈥檚 going to need to flip that dynamic,鈥� Gonzales said.
The poll asked voters whether their feelings about President Donald Trump would have any influence on their vote in November’s election.
“President Trump is very unpopular in the state of Maryland,” Gonzales said.
Just 36 percent of those polled approve of the job Trump is doing, while 59 percent disapprove.
鈥淗e鈥檚 certainly not well-liked among Maryland voters. However that鈥檚 not transferring to the governor,” Gonzales said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e both Republicans, but voters up until this point have separated the two, and view the two very, very differently.鈥�
Asked if Jealous鈥� recent use of an expletive during a news conference had cost the candidate, Gonzales said the poll concluded before that incident.
鈥淚s it a big deal or a one-day story?” Gonzales asked. “I鈥檓 much closer to thinking it鈥檚 a one-day story.”
Gonzales said women comprise the majority of the electorate in Maryland, so the incumbent governor’s ability to capture the female vote is important.
“If a Republican running statewide can capture 48, 49, 50 percent of the female vote, that Republican is well, well on his way toward winning an election鈥� he said.
