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A transportation consultant hired by an Eastern Shore environmental group said the state has not justified its pursuit of a third Bay Bridge crossing, concluding that the current spans are likely to last several more decades.
AKRF, a Hanover, Md.-based environmental planning and engineering services firm, also questioned the traffic projections the state used in launching its bid to build a new span across the Chesapeake Bay.
Numbers used by the Maryland Transportation Authority (MdTA) over-stated future growth in the number of vehicles that will be crossing the water, analysts concluded. The authority owns and operates the bridge, and is leading the Hogan administration鈥檚 push for a third crossing.
The review of MdTA鈥檚 methodology was commissioned by the Queen Anne鈥檚 Conservation Association, an environmental group opposed to sprawl. The AKRF analysis, which was presented to the association in December, was provided to听Maryland Matters听this week.
The report comes amid听听in the release of a key document, the Draft Environmental Impact Statement, a review required under the National Environmental Policy Act. The delay has prompted speculation about the state鈥檚 commitment to the project.
Using a 鈥淟ife Cycle Cost Analysis鈥� that MdTA conducted in 2015, AKRF engineers determined that the existing bridge spans 鈥渃an be safely maintained through 2065 with currently programmed and anticipated rehabilitation and maintenance work.鈥�
Beyond 2065, the authority found, the bridge may require major rehabilitation but would not be structurally deficient or functionally obsolete.
鈥淏ased on the conclusions of AKRF鈥檚 study of traffic congestion and operations on the bridge, and MDTA鈥檚 Life Cycle Study of the bridge鈥檚 structural integrity, there will not likely be a need for a replacement bridge by 2040 for either traffic or structural purposes,鈥� the firm concluded.
Shortly after Gov. Larry Hogan (R) announced plans to pursue a third span in 2016, the 听that weekday traffic would increase 23% by 2040 (from 69,000 vehicles to 84,000) and that summer weekend traffic would increase 14% (from 119,000 vehicles per day to 135,000).
But AKRF called the state鈥檚 analysis into question.
鈥淭he MDTA model starts with existing traffic count data from 2017 that leads to biased findings because it only captures one day of weekend traffic from August, which was much higher than an average summer weekend day,鈥� analysts said.
鈥淥ur estimates rely on historic growth trends over more than 15 years for summer weekend traffic and the last five years for weekday traffic to present an independent traffic growth forecast,鈥� they added.
MdTA spokesman John Sales said the state data was collected over a two-week period.
鈥淭he average weekday data was collected in late April; the summer weekend day data was collected in early August,鈥� he said in an email.
AKRF estimated that bridge traffic would increase only modestly over the next two decades, though the firm conceded that multiple issues 鈥� including the growth in telework, the rate of development on the Eastern Shore, and future dips in the economy 鈥� make it difficult to project with confidence.
Jay Falstad, executive director of the Queen Anne鈥檚 Conservation Association, said the report reinforced his belief that the state鈥檚 traffic projections are 鈥渙ver-inflated.鈥�
鈥淭he numbers that the state is using are just exaggerated,鈥� he added.
Decision to delay bridge study raises questions听
MdTA was scheduled to release the draft environmental report for the bridge project last fall, but the authority quietly pushed that back to December. Officials then decided to keep the DEIS under wraps even longer.
An agency spokesman听听in January that officials delayed the the release of the study due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
鈥淧roceeding with publishing the DEIS and scheduling public hearing would not have been a safe choice while health officials were telling Marylanders they would be safer at home,鈥� Sales told听Maryland Matters听on Tuesday. 鈥淭his led us to revisit our roll-out schedule with our federal partners at the Federal Highway Administration.鈥�
That rationale appears to contradict the practice the Maryland Department of Transportation has used on other projects.
The State Highway Administration, an MDOT sub-unit, held a series of public hearings on the I-495/I-270 road-widening project last year. Some were held virtually, others were held in large hotel ballrooms, where staff and the public could maintain proper distancing.
And on Jan. 15, the Federal Railroad Administration, the Maryland Transit Administration (another MDOT unit), the Maryland Economic Development Corporation and Baltimore-Washington Rapid Rail released听听for the Super-Conducting Magnetic Levitation train 鈥� known as MAGLEV 鈥� despite the pandemic.
An MdTA spokesman declined to explain the inconsistency.
He said the authority expects to release the Bay crossing DEIS and open the public comment period in late February, with both virtual and in-person hearings.
Moran has advocated for a westbound, beach-season toll, which he maintains would raise enough money to fund the study and reduce summertime backups at the existing bridge.鈥淚 don鈥檛 believe it, honestly,鈥� said Queen Anne鈥檚 County Commission chairman James Moran (R) of the reason for delaying the study. 鈥淲hat that means is Hogan鈥檚 going to be able to get out of office without funding Phase 2 of the [National Environmental Policy Act study]. My opinion.鈥�
鈥淚 hate to say it鈥檚 smoke-and-mirrors,鈥� he said of the authority鈥檚 explanation. 鈥淲e鈥檙e trying to be constructive in our dialogue, but it鈥檚 a struggle.鈥�
Anne Arundel County Executive Steuart Pittman (D) also questioned the delay.
鈥淚 assumed that the reason was that the governor doesn鈥檛 have a plan to fund a third span and that the public doesn鈥檛 support spending some $7 billion on a third span after having cut the Red Line in Baltimore, which was less than half [the cost],鈥� he said.
鈥淲hen you look at the way they came up with their projections of future traffic on the bridge, it was based on a projection of sprawl development on the Eastern Shore,鈥� Pittman added. 鈥淢ost residents of the Eastern Shore like being a rural area, and they don鈥檛 want their farms turned into suburban developments.鈥�
Although the state initially studied 14 potential bridge crossing sites, Hogan declared in 2019 that the site adjacent to the currents spans is 鈥渢he only one option I will ever accept.鈥�
Pittman, who opposes a third span, said even if in-person public hearings have to be delayed due to the pandemic, MdTA should release its report now. 鈥淚f the study is done, they should show it to us,鈥� he said. 鈥淣obody likes to have multi-million dollar, taxpayer-funded work by consultants hidden from public view, so let鈥檚 see it.鈥�
Policy consultant Gary V. Hodge, a former elected official in Southern Maryland, said the impact of the pandemic on toll revenues and the lack of traffic congestion at the Bay Bridge 鈥� thanks in part to the administration鈥檚 transition to all-electronic tolling 鈥� has taken the wind out of the project鈥檚 sails.
鈥淏est to leave the听Sturm und Drang听over a new Bay Bridge for the next governor,鈥� Hodge said. 鈥淭here won鈥檛 be any groundbreaking or ribbon-cutting on it in the next two years anyway.鈥�
John B. Townsend II, director of media and government affairs for AAA Mid-Atlantic, also said he was 鈥渁stonished鈥� by the delay.
鈥淲e live in a Zoom world,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 think you could have held the public hearings that way.鈥�
Townsend said it鈥檚 important that the state move forward with plans for a third span, noting that a major bridge collapsed in Minnesota in 2007. 鈥淗ow long do we forsake infrastructure like that? Any span that size, over a body of water like the Chesapeake Bay, cannot last forever.鈥�
Townsend noted that MDOT officials have been consumed with the controversy over delays and cost overruns associated with the Purple Line light rail project, and with the selection of a private-sector partner for the I-495/I-270 project, which is expected to be announced in the coming days.
鈥淚 wonder if there is some kind of fatigue going on,鈥� he said. 鈥淛ust to save the Purple Line took an all-out effort. I think it was demoralizing for the whole department because it was a signature project.鈥�
bruce@marylandmatters.org
