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Democrat Angela Alsobrooks holds a 5-point lead over Republican Larry Hogan in their campaign for U.S. Senate, according to a poll released Wednesday.
罢丑别听聽shows Alsobrooks leading Hogan 46%-41% with 11% still undecided.
鈥淚 wouldn鈥檛 call in the dogs. The hunt鈥檚 still on, and it鈥檚 absolutely still a race,鈥� said pollster Patrick Gonzales.
Gonzales surveyed 820 registered voters who said they are likely to vote in November. The poll, conducted between Aug. 24-30, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%.
On Tuesday, Gonzales released a poll that included updated job performance numbers聽, whose job approval was improving, as well as look at the state of the presidential campaign in deep-blue Maryland, where Vice President Kamala Harris (D) holds a wide lead over GOP nominee Donald Trump.
The Gonzales poll on the Senate race contrasts with a recent survey suggesting a tighter race: Last week, a poll conducted for AARP, showed Alsobrooks and Hogan聽. That poll sampled 600 voters in mid-August and had a 4-point margin of error.
Alsobrooks, the two-term Democratic executive of Prince George鈥檚 County, and Hogan, just the second two-term Republican governor in Maryland history, are vying to succeed Sen. Ben Cardin (D). The three-term senior senator聽聽more than a year ago.
If elected, Hogan would become the first Republican to hold a U.S. Senate seat in Maryland since Charles McC. Mathias Jr., who retired in 1987.
Alsobrooks and Hogan enter the final 60 days of the campaign with distinctly different levels of name identification among those polled.
For Hogan, 98% of voters said they recognized his name including 50% who said they have a favorable impression of the former governor. Another 19% had an unfavorable opinion and 29% said they were neutral.
Alsobrooks鈥� name was recognized by roughly 67% of voters surveyed, including four in 10 who said they had a favorable opinion of the county executive. Another 7% said they had an unfavorable opinion of Alsobrooks.
More than three in 10 people surveyed did not recognize her by name.
鈥淚t means regular people have lives that don鈥檛 revolve around politics,鈥� Gonzales said.
The high number of those who do not have an impression of Alsobrooks could be an opportunity for her, but it also leaves open the door to be defined by her opponent if she does not do so herself, Gonzales said. He said Alsobrooks has a 鈥渂lank slate鈥� when it comes to how voters see her that allows Alsobrooks to define herself to voters or be defined by her opponent who 鈥渃an paint whatever they want on it.鈥�
Gonzales said many voters are not yet paying close attention to the race.
Democratic voters in Maryland outnumber their Republican counterparts by a roughly 2-1 margin. The poll shows Hogan has the support of a sizable number of Democrats 鈥� 21% said they would vote for Hogan, compared to 72% for Alsobrooks 鈥� but Gonzales said Hogan has a math challenge 鈥� namely his ability to get to 30% support from Democratic voters.
鈥淟arry鈥檚 got to get to 30% of Democrats, no matter what,鈥� Gonzales said. 鈥淗e鈥檚 got to get 90% of Republicans, 55% of independents, and he鈥檚 got to get to 30% of Democrats. Mathematically, that鈥檚 the only way it adds up to a victory.
鈥淪o, is that possible? Of course, it鈥檚 possible. But when you look at the numbers (the poll), it鈥檚 not possible because there鈥檚 only 6% of Democrats undecided,鈥� he said.
