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As the Trump administration continues slicing the federal workforce and laying off probational employees in large numbers, much of the conversation on how it impacts Maryland can center around the populous counties that lie just outside of the District of Columbia 鈥� Prince George鈥檚 County and Montgomery County.
But relative to population size, you鈥檙e actually more likely to run into a federal worker in St. Mary鈥檚 County than in the either of those counties, given that nearly 10% of the workforce in St. Mary鈥檚 is considered a federal employee, according to state data.
With Maryland鈥檚 proximity to the federal government, the number of contracts with the federal government within the state, and the presence of several military bases, Maryland is uniquely exposed and impacted by changes in funding and federal layoffs.
Lawmakers and political science researchers say that focusing on the workers in Prince George鈥檚 and Montgomery counties can skew the picture that the far-reaching impacts of federal layoffs will have in other parts of the state 鈥� especially as federal layoffs begin to impact the military and defense sector.
鈥淧eople get distracted by raw numbers instead of percentages,鈥� said Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary鈥檚 College of Maryland. 鈥淚f you want to understand the impact of something on a local economy, you鈥檝e got to look at it as a percent of the workforce.鈥�
Maryland Matters used data from the Maryland Department of Labor that outlines how many known federal jobs are located in each county and compared them to population numbers from U.S. Census Bureau to approximate the number of federal workers per capita.
The result: The federal workforce extends well beyond the D.C. suburbs, meaning that the impacts of federal layoffs would likely reach into other counties as well, especially if President Donald Trump (R) or Elon Musk鈥檚 Department of Government Efficiency decide to target defense funding to cut down on spending in the United States.
That鈥檚 the potential situation in St. Mary鈥檚 County. The county鈥檚 largest employer is the Naval Air Station Patuxent River 鈥� which employs 9,800 civilian employees, 5,700 contractors and 2,400 active duty military personnel, according to the base鈥檚 website.
鈥淚t鈥檚 no doubt that St. Mary鈥檚 is a company town,鈥� said Del. Matthew Morgan (R-St. Mary鈥檚) in an interview last week. 鈥淭he main driving force of St. Mary鈥檚: DOD (Department of Defense) government workers and DOD contracts. The economy on this is entirely based on that.鈥�
He referenced St. Mary鈥檚 County specifically 鈥� which has about 89 federal workers per 1,000 residents, according to Maryland Matters鈥� analysis.
Layoffs have already started in the defense sector, according to with more cuts possible this week.
鈥淚 think that鈥檚 something on the horizon, and we should be really conscious of it and do our due diligence,鈥� Morgan said.
Morgan recently faced off with the House Majority Leader Jazz Lewis (D-Prince George鈥檚) on the House floor over a bill aiming to help provide financial and legal assistance to laid-off federal workers. Lewis had insinuated that Republican delegates who represent counties with a high percentage of federal employees aren鈥檛 amid threats of layoffs.
鈥淧eople often think about Montgomery County or Prince George鈥檚 County because we literally border Washington (D.C.), but not actually thinking about a lot of these jobs across the state,鈥� Lewis said Wednesday after the argument went down on the House floor.
鈥淔or their size, they have the largest share as a percentage,鈥� Lewis said. 鈥淔or them to stand up and kind of, frankly, not be defending and trying to protect their own workers is mind-boggling.鈥�
Morgan later countered that Republicans had been advocating for their constituents by been pushing for policies that are friendly to businesses, thus easing the state鈥檚 reliance off of federal jobs.
Republicans in the State House have repeatedly said that federal job cuts are unfortunate, but that the cuts point up the need for the state to diversify its economy and wean itself away from government reiliance.
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Eberly, a resident of St. Mary鈥檚 County, noted that the smaller counties could have a harder time offsetting the impacts if a large swath of their residents who are federal workers get laid off.
鈥淸Prince George鈥檚 has] a bit more diversity in their economy,鈥� Eberly said. 鈥淲hich means, theoretically, they could absorb some of this a little bit better than we could. You take away the federal dollars flowing into St. Mary鈥檚 County and our tax base is seriously harmed.鈥�
And it鈥檚 not just St. Mary鈥檚 County that could be hurt by federal layoffs.
Relative to size, Harford County has a rate of federal workers that almost rivals Montgomery County at 43 federal workers per 1,000 people, according to Maryland Matters鈥� analysis. One of the largest employers there is the Army base Aberdeen Proving Ground.
Del. Andre V. Johnson, Jr. (D-Harford) says that larger counties can overshadow the impacts in his district.
鈥淎 lot of times, in any and every situation, those outliers as far as those smaller jurisdictions get overlooked,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t always does, because the larger jurisdictions always get the most light. And rightfully so, because they have a larger population of people. But still 鈥� Aberdeen Proving Ground being our No. 1 employer, it鈥檚 going to hurt.鈥�
As the session continues and more federal layoffs loom, lawmakers are looking for ways to soften the blow for Marylanders, such as pushing which could come up for a floor vote this week.
鈥淚n all intents and purposes, Harford County is a military community 鈥� with the new administration coming in, it鈥檚 going to affect us in a really big way,鈥� Johnson said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e going to do everything in our power down here in Annapolis to make sure that people can still pay their bills and feed their families.鈥�
