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Gov. Wes Moore (D) has a difficult, but not insurmountable, path to redraw the state鈥檚 eight congressional districts 鈥� and it may hinge on the first-term Democratic executive鈥檚 ability to win votes in the Senate.
With the House of Delegates apparently on board with the governor, Moore needs to find 24 votes in the 47-member Senate to add Maryland to the list of states redrawing their congressional maps to gain partisan advantage ahead of the 2026 elections. But Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore City) put his 34-member caucus on record against redistricting on Oct. 28 with a聽聽outlining a series of arguments against it.
The Moore administration has quietly cast doubt on how much support Ferguson has within his own caucus, and insists the field is constantly shifting. But for now at least, based on interviews with a number of Senate Democrats, Ferguson appears to be on solid footing with a majority of his caucus.
鈥淚 think that鈥檚 right,鈥� said Sen. Cheryl C. Kagan (D-Montgomery County), vice chair of the Senate Education, Energy and the Environment Committee, of the current state of affairs.
Kagan said she is generally supportive of the idea of drawing maps that eliminate the last Republican congressional district 鈥� the congressional map currently favors Democrats, who hold seven of the state鈥檚 eight U.S. House seats.
鈥淚f I had a magic wand, I would like an eight-to-zero map,鈥� Kagan said.
But she said the state is 鈥渟upremely unlikely鈥� to contribute toward a national majority for her party, which has to be weighed against the threat of losing one or possibly two seats to Republicans, making Maryland 鈥渄etrimental to the cause of winning a Democratic majority.鈥�
鈥淭here鈥檚 an opportunity cost to this issue, because the time that we鈥檙e spending debating district lines should more wisely be spent on jobs, economic development, the climate crisis, civil rights, voting rights, health care, education and our budget challenges,鈥� Kagan said. 鈥淭here are so many public policy issues in front of us. At some point, this feels like a risky distraction.鈥�
While the Republican Caucus also聽, it is the Democratic caucus 鈥� which holds a 34-13 advantage in the Senate, and elected Ferguson to lead the body 鈥� that will determine the fate of the issue.
Maryland Matters sought interviews with more than 20 rank-and-file Senate Democrats 鈥� the bulk of the caucus. Roughly half agreed to an interview, though some asked to not be named. Others either declined an interview or did not respond to a request for comment.
Ferguson鈥檚 support 鈥� a broad term that includes senators who are merely deferential to their leader 鈥� appears to fall within a range of 20-25 of the Democratic Caucus鈥� 34 members,
A portion of that support comes from nearly a dozen lawmakers who make up his leadership team, including committee chairs and vice chairs.
鈥淐learly, the Senate does not have a strong desire to do redistricting,鈥� said Sen. Karen Lewis Young (D-Frederick), who described herself as leaning in support of Ferguson but 鈥渒eeping an open mind.鈥�
Even those who said they favor midcycle redistricting acknowledge Ferguson鈥檚 advantage.
鈥淭he caucus members were behind the Senate president with that [Oct. 28] letter,鈥� said Sen. Arthur Ellis (D-Charles). 鈥淗e didn鈥檛 do that on his own, lot of discussions before that.鈥�
But Ellis said events nationally have changed since Ferguson sent that letter three weeks ago.
Democrats, and in many cases their constituents, want to oppose President Donald Trump. But that visceral desire is tempered, for some, by concerns that doing so could backfire and inadvertently give Republicans more congressional seats.
鈥淲e have to be very pragmatic and thoughtful as we pursue this,鈥� said Sen. Ben Kramer (D-Montgomery). 鈥淚 get the emotions that are in play. I understand that there鈥檚 a lot of desire to push back on the administration. I鈥檓 sure there are places where Maryland can participate in that. I鈥檓 just not sure that this issue is one of those where we鈥檙e ultimately going to be a player.鈥�
Kramer said he opposes the effort because of the risk of losing seats to Republicans or the courts tossing out new maps.
Ferguson has clear opponents, including Sen. Clarence K. Lam (D-Howard and Anne Arundel), who聽 calling for midcycle redistricting. Lam declined to comment for this story, but he isn鈥檛 alone.
鈥淚鈥檓 hoping that we will call a special session to get this done right away,鈥� said Sen. C. Anthony Muse (D-Prince George鈥檚). 鈥淲e cannot let Trump continue to do what he鈥檚 doing and let Democrats look weak 鈥� as though we鈥檙e doing nothing.鈥�
Ellis agreed with Muse.
鈥淪o to be honest, we鈥檙e taking it serious,鈥� Ellis said. 鈥淲e thought our one seat wasn鈥檛 important 鈥� our extra one Republican seat 鈥� but obviously it is to the national discussion. So a lot of talk, a lot of movement 鈥�. I鈥檓 not sure what the end result will be, but there鈥檚 a lot of discussion going on right now.鈥�
Ellis said he鈥檚 hearing from constituents who are 鈥渞eaching out to me, like: 鈥楬ey, join California, join the other states who are doing it.鈥欌��
鈥淚 have to listen to my constituents, and I believe most of my colleagues believe the same, and so we are able to change our mind,鈥� he said. 鈥淎nd if enough members on the caucus, Democratic caucus, change our minds, then it will happen.鈥�
Ellis said he would vote for redistricting if a bill comes to the floor, but he doubts the issue will reach the full Senate.
鈥淚f a bill comes on the floor of the Senate, yes, I鈥檒l vote for it,鈥� he said, before adding, 鈥淲e don鈥檛 bring things on the floor, being a super majority, that鈥檚 going to fail.鈥�
Moore could decide to call a special session before the legislature is scheduled to convene in mid-January. The governor convened a five-member聽, led by U.S. Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), that held two meetings last week with a third scheduled Tuesday.
If called back into special session, lawmakers will first have to take up any overrides of Moore vetoes, including his veto of a bill creating a commission to study on reparations.
In his veto message, Moore said the reparations commission would be redundant 鈥� ironic, Ellis said, given Moore鈥檚 position on the creation of a redistricting panel.
鈥淪o why is the redistricting commission good for this thing that he wants to do now, but when we pass the reparations commission, he says it鈥檚 a waste of time?鈥� Ellis asked.
Ellis said he looks forward to being able to work on a redistricting effort.
鈥淚 also look forward to override his veto of the reparations commission bill,鈥� he said.
A spokesperson for the governor did not respond to a request for comment for this story. But supporters of redistricting have other levers to pull to bring senators to their side.
Moore last week announced the creation of a聽聽that would focus on supporting and electing Democratic lawmakers supportive of his agenda. Redistricting was not specifically highlighted, but the timing of the announcement came as his redistricting advisory panel was holding its first meeting, angering Democrats in the House and Senate.
National Democrats are entering the fray, too.聽聽last Monday to the General Assembly, Reps. Steny Hoyer (D-4th) and Jamie Raskin (D-8th) lobbied hard for redistricting.
鈥淲e can redistrict to make Maryland House seats more competitive in a way that counters the Trump national steamroller, and we believe such an effort can survive any legal attack,鈥� the Congressmen wrote.
Ellis said a call from Hoyer solidified his position.
鈥淲e鈥檙e not stiff, unyielding, people. I mean, we can be influenced, and we can change our minds, right?鈥� Ellis said.
Muse said he spoke with the governor鈥檚 office about redistricting, and got calls from Hoyer and from Rep. Jim Clyburn (D- S.C.). 鈥淚 just said that: 鈥業鈥檓 where you are,’鈥� Muse said.
Ferguson鈥檚 letter made much of the potential legal challenges associated with drawing a new map.
A court-drawn map would be an extraordinary, but not without precedent. In 2002, the state鈥檚 highest court struck down the state鈥檚 legislative districts map with less than a month before the filing deadline for candidates, so the court drew its own map rather than send it back to lawmakers.
The congressional districts approved in 2022 followed a process prescribed by the Maryland Constitution. Because of that, it is not known if the court would feel the same sense of urgency if it struck down a new map.
Unspoken in Ferguson鈥檚 letter is the real concern that the court would not redraw the map but send it back to lawmakers with restrictions on how districts are drawn and what can and cannot be considered. Such an order could set an unwanted standard for future redistricting.
Hoyer and Raskin argue that the courts are limited in what they can do.
鈥淲hile Senator Ferguson is obviously right that there is an element of uncertainty in all litigation, there are some well-established doctrines that courts follow out of deference to the legislature鈥檚 constitutional power over redistricting,鈥� Hoyer and Raskin wrote. 鈥淐hief among these is the principle that, when a court strikes down a newly elected map as unlawful, the legislature must be afforded a reasonable opportunity to remedy the violation.鈥�
Muse agreed, saying: 鈥淲hatever the judges do, we鈥檙e the Senate, and we write the laws.鈥�
Moore鈥檚 redistricting push comes in response to President Donald Trump鈥檚 push to get Republican-led states to redistrict early, with the goal of drawing more GOP-friendly districts, easing the party鈥檚 effort to retain its hold on the House of Representatives in 2026.
Trump succeeded in Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott signed a new map into law in August. But California voters this month approved a new map that has the potential to cancel any gains in Texas.
But Republicans have also redrawn maps in Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio. Notably, court challenges are still underway in many red states.
Maryland has only the one seat in GOP hands that it could try to flip, the Eastern Shore-based 1st District held by Republican Andy Harris. Some argue the 6th District, which encompasses part of Montgomery County and the Western Maryland panhandle, is a competitive district. That seat is held by Democratic聽Rep. April McClain Delaney.
Sen. Charles E. Sydnor III (D-Baltimore County) said that anger from registered Republicans, who are outnumbered 2-1 by registered Democrats in Maryland, would be justified, if the state were to redraw its maps so that all eight districts lean left.
Sydnor said he鈥檚 sympathetic because he fought gerrymandering in his own county, after the county council packed voters of color into two majority-Black districts, which a court later overturned, determining that the map diluted the Black vote.
鈥淚鈥檓 particularly sensitive to the feeling of one attempting to disenfranchise you. So, I don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 the right answer,鈥� Sydnor said of midcycle redistricting.
By comparison, Sen. Mary-Dulany James (D-Harford) said that if a redistricting bill reached the floor in the Senate, her vote would depend on the map in front of her. She believes her district in Harford County, District 34, would be better off in a congressional district of Western Shore counties around Baltimore, not lumped in with the Eastern Shore, as it is today.
鈥淚 want to protect Harford County,鈥� James said. 鈥淗arford County has been thrown about, and District 34 has been thrown about, in various maps over the years.鈥�
Other Senate Democrats told Maryland Matters they have yet to make up their minds, including Sen. Ben Brooks (D- Baltimore County).
鈥淎re we talking about something that鈥檚 going to make a major difference in Maryland? Or are we talking about something that鈥檚 going to make an impact statement nationwide? That鈥檚 the conundrum,鈥� Brooks said.
Brooks said he hears varying opinions from his constituents, but plenty of people are in favor, largely because they see Trump鈥檚 policies as egregious.
鈥淏ecause of what鈥檚 going on now nationally 鈥� the shutdown, even the tearing down of the East Wing. It鈥檚 got a lot of people exercised,鈥� Brooks said. 鈥淭he arresting people who are cutting grass, at Home Depot or at McDonald鈥檚. 鈥� All of those things weigh heavily on fairness in the minds of people.鈥�
As legislators weigh their decision, they also must consider the political leanings of their district.
In Anne Arundel County, Stephen A. Tillett, a minister, is challenging Senate Finance Chair Sen. Pamela Beidle in next year鈥檚 Democratic primary. Tillett was a featured speaker at a recent State House rally demanding Ferguson pass a redistricting bill.
Sen. Nick Charles (D-Prince George鈥檚) said his constituents seem to broadly support redistricting, so he would feel comfortable voting for it. But he is also weighing the fact that the move could put Democrats in danger of losing a seat or two in the House.
鈥淚 can vote for it and the people in my district would love it,鈥� Charles said. 鈥淏ut there鈥檚 possibilities that things could happen.鈥�
