WASHINGTON 鈥� Back on June 28, the Houston Astros led the American League West, the Oakland Athletics were buried 10.5 games out, and I was about to talk to two writers about anything but the current state of affairs in baseball. Little did I know that both of them 鈥� Michael Lewis and Rob Neyer 鈥� had books slated to come out this fall, the latter鈥檚 of which dovetails as something of an update to where the game has gone since the 2003 publication of Lewis鈥檚 “Moneyball,” perhaps the most influential baseball book of my lifetime.
That new tome is titled 鈥�,鈥� the cadence of the subtitle even evocative of Lewis’ own (鈥淭he art of winning an unfair game鈥�). Fittingly, it is told through the nine innings of a Sept. 2017 tilt between the eventual World Champion Astros and this year鈥檚 breakout team, the A鈥檚, a prism that allows Neyer to dive into the game鈥檚 many evolutions and transformations both on and off the field.
Back in June, Lewis and Neyer were both in D.C. as part of a discussion tied to the opening of the Baseball Americana exhibit at the Library of Congress, which even includes 鈥淢oneyball鈥� on display. And while the term is thrown all around both within baseball and beyond it to mean any number of things, really, at its core, it鈥檚 not about walks, or on-base percentage, or a 20-game win streak in 2002.
鈥淚f I only have one sentence, I say it鈥檚 about the way markets misvalue people, even when those people are seemingly so easy to value as professional baseball players,鈥� said Lewis. 鈥淎nd if the markets can so misvalue professional baseball players, who can鈥檛 they misvalue? That鈥檚 the heart of the story.鈥�
At the heart of Neyer’s story is how baseball鈥檚 evolved in the intervening 15 years, with terabytes more data and scores more analysts across MLB front offices hired to sift through it. From the home run and strikeout booms to the advent of Statcast, some of the changes are obvious and endemic. But baseball has also evolved in countless, incremental ways we take for granted 鈥� from instant replay, to concussion protocol, to the Chase Utley Rule 鈥� each of which Neyer finds ways to weave in through the context of this single game.
It鈥檚 impressive, really, just how many ties he鈥檚 able to establish without feeling like he鈥檚 reaching. And considering this particular game was chosen last September, before the postseason, it was pure coincidence that he ended up with last year鈥檚 World Series winner and this season鈥檚 most surprising team.
鈥淚n a sense, I wanted something forgettable,鈥� he said when choosing the game, which was one among several he picked from. 鈥淚 wanted to write about one of those teams at the forefront of using modern baseball tools.鈥�
The Astros are certainly that, and if the Moneyball A鈥檚 invented modern baseball, Neyer anoints what鈥檚 going on in Houston (and with the Cubs in Chicago) as Postmodern Baseball. Part of that entails the strategic decision to essentially punt several seasons in order to build a roster that can compete for a World Series down the line, a plan that has worked to perfection for the Cubs and Astros over the past two seasons.
Neyer鈥檚 neither a particular proponent, nor opponent of this strategy insofar as it affects fan interest.
鈥淭he best way to create and attract fans is to win a lot. Not 82 games, but a lot,鈥� he said, but acknowledged the cost of getting to that point. 鈥淵ou may definitely lost some long-term fans, because there are sweet spots when it comes to developing baseball fandom.鈥�
When it comes to addressing the increase in the three true outcomes 鈥� walks, strikeouts and home runs 鈥� that dominate today鈥檚 game, Neyer doesn鈥檛 offer a silver bullet for creating more action, but also doesn鈥檛 buy the solutions floated about to affect change, particularly banning shifts.
鈥淪ure, you鈥檒l have a few more line drives and ground balls, but you don鈥檛 really get at the heart of the problem, which is lack of balls in play. Banning the shift wouldn鈥檛 change that at all,鈥� he said.
鈥淚f we鈥檙e going to do these things, we should at least know why we鈥檙e doing it and have a reason for it.鈥�
In fact, as Neyer points out in the book, league batting average on balls in play has barely budged in the new age of shifting. Never mind the fact that the entire idea of standard defense is, in and of itself, a shift, and enforcing against them is ahistorical.
As Lewis pointed out in our conversation, “In a weird way, the conventions have collapsed in baseball.” This will continue to prove true with the use of “openers,” including by the A’s in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game. The landscape has continued to shift and change even within the relatively short 10-month time frame that Neyer wrote his book.
Neyer seems to understand this constantly evolving dynamic, and as such, he doesn鈥檛 try to prove any wild theories about baseball, nor is 鈥淧owerball鈥� some attempt to blow the cover off a never-before-told aspect of the game. Rather, it鈥檚 a thorough accounting of how we got where we are, a dispelling of common myths, and a keen examination of what makes baseball in 2018 what it is.
