WASHINGTON 鈥� Terrorists and criminal networks have taken advantage of听governmental corruption, the misery of war and other developments听to build dangerous empires that might soon eclipse the power of legitimate countries.
In Europe, for instance, human trafficking operations quadrupled in size from 2014 to 2015.
Nine out of every 10 migrants who arrive in European Union countries were brought there by smugglers.听Europol, the听EU鈥檚听law enforcement agency听announced the details听as it launched its new听European Migrant Smuggling Center听on Monday.听
According to the center’s research, more than one million people entered the E.U. illegally in 2015. More than 3,000 died trying to get there听on boats and other means of transportation provided by a burgeoning听human trafficking empire worth between $3 billion and $6 billion.
鈥淭ackling this huge people-smuggling trade 鈥� has become an essential part of the EU鈥檚 response to the migrant crisis,鈥� said Rob Wainwright, Europol鈥檚 director.
But as Europe scrambles to shut down illegal migrant flows and arrest smugglers, the job听might be getting tougher: War rages on; terrorists still kill, and natural resources have grown scarce.
鈥淭he severity of existing weather patterns will intensify, with wet areas getting wetter, and dry and arid areas becoming more so,鈥� said a 2012 Global Trends . 鈥淢uch of the decline in precipitation will occur in the Middle East and northern Africa as well as western Central Asia, southern Europe, southern Africa, and the U.S. Southwest.鈥�
Terrorism experts say听the scramble for resources could push those desperate to provide for their families into the clutches of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and other terror groups.
Robert听Baer, a former CIA covert operative, points to听the听growing misery in the Middle East and North Africa.
鈥淲hat do you do about global warming in sub-Saharan Africa and water supplies? With global warming, overpopulation [and] water supplies in those regions running out, it doesn鈥檛 matter where, you鈥檙e just going to see a lot of people reverting to radical Islam,鈥� said Baer.
Baer says he believes ISIL鈥檚 seemingly overnight transformation from an idea talked about in jihadist circles on the Internet to a tangible, billion dollar pseudo-government that holds听vast swathes of territory听in the Middle East,听persuaded听tens of听thousands of people to accept its violent听ideology听and join them. 听听
He says he believes many did听it听to survive and many others may follow them.听Europol鈥檚听research confirms his suspicions.听
A Europol report confirms that notion: The total number of irregular migrants arriving in the EU was almost five times higher than in 2014. In the first seven weeks of 2016, more than 84,000 irregular migrants reached the EU.
The report says the migrants traveling to the EU primarily originate from Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq as well as from Senegal, Somalia, Niger, Morocco and other African countries.听There鈥檚 also a continuous flow of irregular migrants from Asian countries, including India, Bangladesh, China, and Vietnam.
Baer says he believes it听is no coincidence that听people from those areas are on the move听because听in all of those areas,听except China and Vietnam,听ISIL and other terrorists groups have or are听trying to establish a presence.
鈥淭here is no one policy that going to stop this,鈥� Baer said. 鈥淭he crazier things get, there鈥檚 a large group of people that are going to turn to belief and violent belief. There鈥檚 a phenomenon underway where the world is changing very quickly.鈥�
That change, U.S. intelligence analysts suggest,听may open the door to more frequent population disruptions.
The concern for Europol and almost every other law enforcement service in the world is the nexus between terrorists, weapons dealers and smugglers. 听
Michael Braun, a former Drug Enforcement Administration official, who briefed Congress in 2006 and again in 2012, predicted this alliance.
Braun, currently a managing partner in the SGI global security firm, warned that 鈥渟muggling operations would one day provide the backbone of terrorist activities aimed at the U.S. other western countries.”
Braun鈥檚 warning played out recently in Paris, when the Islamic State鈥檚 pipeline into the Middle East and North Africa was exposed. Several of those in last November鈥檚 attacks moved freely back and forth from Syria to Europe using the human smugglers.
The attacks were particularly brutal and efficient. The attackers have powerful weapons and a plan. That too was something intelligence experts predicted. And their prediction goes even further.
According to the Global Trends report, a 鈥渨ider spectrum of instruments of war 鈥� especially precision-strike capabilities, cyber instruments, and bioterror weaponry 鈥� will become accessible. Individuals and small groups will have the capability to perpetrate large-scale violence and disruption 鈥� a capability formerly the monopoly of states.鈥�
That appears to be what ISIL has achieved, experts say.
鈥淲e have a number of instances where ISIL has used chemical munitions on the battlefield. There are reports that ISIL has access to chemical precursors and munitions they can use,鈥� said CIA Director John Brennan on CBS鈥檚 “60 Minutes” recently.
As intelligence agencies try to disrupt terrorist operations around the world, the EU is trying to meet the stiff challenge posed by more than 230 locations in the Middle East and North Africa where illegal facilitation or migrant smuggling takes place.
Europol says is has intelligence on more than 40,000 suspects involved in migrant smuggling. Twelve thousand emerged in 2015.
鈥淭he fight against migrant smuggling is a key priority for the European Union in addressing the refugee crisis. The launch of this center will reinforce cooperation with Member States, international organizations, national stakeholders and European agencies, with a responsibility to fight migrant smuggling,鈥澨鼸U Commissioner for Migration, Home Affairs and Citizenship Dimitris Avramopoulos said at the EMSC opening.
