NEW YORK (AP) 鈥� Who says to beware the Ides of March?
A March 15 may feel late. By then, it will be almost a year since sunk its teeth into moviegoers last April. Some nominees have been on the campaign trail since the in May.
But the upside of a prolonged Oscar race has meant some unexpected late drama. Think about the same movies long enough, and minds can change. For months, Paul Thomas Anderson’s sailed through awards season, picking up prize after prize. But the wins for 鈥沦颈苍苍别谤蝉鈥� and Michael B. Jordan at 鈥� along with some other recent developments 鈥� have given the Oscar race what Smoke or Stack might call fresh blood.
An Academy Awards that had looked like a runaway might be a close call, after all. With Oscar voting ending Thursday, let’s survey the top categories
Best Picture
WHERE THINGS STAND
鈥淥ne Battle After Another鈥� has won at the , the , the and the . But its nearly unblemished record was shaken up at Sunday’s Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards), where 鈥沦颈苍苍别谤蝉鈥� took the top prize. You’d have to have quite a few rounds at the 鈥沦颈苍苍别谤蝉鈥� juke joint to convince yourself that anything else has much of a chance.
WHAT HAS THE EDGE
The tea leaves are strongest for Anderson’s 鈥淥ne Battle After Another.鈥� The Producers Guild, which uses a preferential ballot like the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences does, is among the most predictive of bellwethers. Their winners have matched the last five years and in eight of the last 10 years.
The actors guild best ensemble prize, on the other hand, has a shaky track record. In the last 31 years, the SAG winner has matched the Oscar champ only 15 times. The win for 鈥淪inners,鈥� though, came right in the midst of Oscar voting. It was a good time to show out. So this race feels close to a coin flip, with a Warner Bros. movie on both sides. The awards season resume makes 鈥淥ne Battle After Another鈥� the front-runner. But 鈥淪inners,鈥� even with , gets to play the underdog.
Best Actor
WHERE THINGS STAND
This has been one of the most competitive and hard-to-call races of the season. Look at Leonardo DiCaprio. He gives one of the best performances of his career, in the best picture favorite, and he’s still a long shot. Instead, was widely perceived as in the lead after early wins at the Globes and the Critics Choice Awards for his frenetic performance in 鈥淢arty Supreme.鈥� But the BAFTAs muddied the waters (Robert Aramayo, not in the Oscar mix, was the unexpected winner). And 鈥沦颈苍苍别谤蝉鈥� star Michael B. Jordan, much to his surprise, won at the Actor Awards.
WHO HAS THE EDGE
Chalamet’s maybe meta campaign, full of swagger and braggadocio, rubbed some voters the wrong way. At the same time, many in the academy felt the 30-year-old should have won last year, for his Bob Dylan in 鈥淎 Complete Unknown鈥� 鈥� a year when he won with the actors guild but lost to at the Oscars. Chalamet will hope the reverse happens this year. But the academy is notoriously resistant to rewarding young stars. Jordan, 39, isn’t much older. But it now suddenly feels like his moment.
Best Actress
WHERE THINGS STAND
Since the fall festival launch of 鈥淗amnet,鈥� has been the favorite. She’s won at the Globes, the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards. Her closest competition is probably Rose Byrne, who won at the Globes in the comedy/musical category for 鈥淚f I Had Legs I’d Kick You.鈥�
WHO HAS THE EDGE
This one鈥檚 easy. Fortunes have fluctuated in most of the top categories, but Buckley has been entrenched as the front-runner for months.
Best Supporting Actor
WHERE THINGS STAND
Sean Penn, a two-time Oscar winner, has done nearly no campaigning, yet he finds himself the favorite after winning at the Actor Awards and the BAFTAs. But several other nominees remain in the mix. (鈥淪entimental Value鈥�) won at the Globes and is the kind of widely-liked veteran actor the academy likes to reward. But so is Delroy Lindo (鈥沦颈苍苍别谤蝉鈥�), who was a surprise Oscar nominee. In the eyes of many, Lindo has quickly joined the contenders.
WHO HAS THE EDGE
Penn’s recent wins put him clearly in the lead, and he might stay there. But this remains a category rife with possibilities. The academy’s strong international leanings should help Skarsg氓rd. And it wasn’t an accident that when 鈥沦颈苍苍别谤蝉鈥� won best ensemble at the Actor Awards, Lindo gave the acceptance speech.
Best Supporting Actress
WHERE THINGS STAND
This category has been all over the map. Teyana Taylor (鈥淥ne Battle After Another鈥�) won at the Globes. Wunmi Mosaku (鈥沦颈苍苍别谤蝉鈥�) won at the BAFTAs. And Amy Madigan (鈥淲eapons鈥�) won at both the Actor Awards and the Critics Choice Awards.
WHO HAS THE EDGE
Any of those three could win. Two of them 鈥� Taylor and Mosaku 鈥� have the benefit of co-starring in films the academy obviously loves. 鈥沦颈苍苍别谤蝉鈥� and 鈥淥ne Battle After Another鈥� have 29 nominations between them, while 鈥淲eapons鈥� has only the one. Yet the 75-year-old Madigan, another celebrated character actor who’s been great for decades, has the momentum thanks to her charming Actors Award speech.
Copyright © 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, written or redistributed.
