HALVALA, Finland (AP) 鈥� A ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely before the spring and European allies need to keep up support despite a that has engulfed Kyiv, President Alexander Stubb of Finland told The Associated Press.
Europe, meanwhile, will require 鈥樷�檚isu,鈥欌�� a Finnish word meaning endurance, resilience and grit, to get through the winter months, he said, as Russia continues its and information war across the continent.
Stubb also needs that quality as one of the key European interlocutors between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. As the leader of one of Europe’s smaller countries, but one that shares a 1,340-kilometer (830-mile) , he is well aware of what’s at stake.
In the 1940s, after two wars with Russia, Finland lost about 10% of its territory to Moscow and agreed to become militarily neutral. But Finland’s losses were much less than they could have been as Finnish troops displayed 鈥渟isu鈥� and inflicted heavy losses on the Soviet army, despite being vastly outnumbered.
Finland’s neutral stance only reversed after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when the Finns joined NATO. Stubb leverages his good relationship with Trump 鈥� the two men have played golf together and speak regularly 鈥� to argue the case for Ukraine.
鈥淚 can explain to President Trump what Finland went through or how I see the situation on the battlefield, or how do you deal with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin? And then, you know, if he accepts one out of 10 ideas, that鈥檚 good,鈥� he said.
Stubb spoke to AP Saturday at a military base north of the capital Helsinki, where he observed Finnish volunteers take part in defense training. Wearing a jacket with the word 鈥渟isu鈥� emblazoned across the back, he watched as volunteers practiced evacuating wounded soldiers from a conflict zone in freezing temperatures.
Stubb told AP that Zelenskyy must deal quickly with allegations of , saying the scandal plays into the hands of Russia. Nonetheless, he urged European leaders to look at and military support for Kyiv, which is also facing creeping on the battlefield.
鈥淚鈥檓 not very optimistic about achieving a ceasefire or the beginning of peace negotiations, at least this year,鈥� Stubb said, adding it would be good to 鈥済et something going鈥� by March.
The three big questions on the road to a ceasefire are , rebuilding its economy and coming to some sort of understanding about territorial claims, he said.
To bring peace to Ukraine, Stubb said, Trump and European leaders need to maximize pressure on Russia and on Putin in order to change his strategic thinking. Putin “basically wants to deny the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine,” aims that have not altered since the war began nearly four years ago, Stubb said.
To do this, he suggested using tools such as the hundreds of billions of dollars in held in Europe as collateral to fund Ukraine, as well as increasing military pressure on Moscow.
Stubb praised Trump for Lukoil and Rosneft in October, saying he did 鈥渁n excellent job,鈥� but argued more must be done to give Ukraine the capacity to hit Russia鈥檚 鈥渕ilitary or defense industry.”
Last month, Trump for long-range Tomahawk missiles that would theoretically allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia 鈥� although Kyiv does not currently have any launchers or platforms from which to fire them.
Ukraine is still negotiating with the U.S. for more firepower, Stubb indicated.
Trump’s swings on Ukraine
In mid-October, the White House announced Trump would meet Putin in Budapest before abruptly less than a week later.
The decision came after a call between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, where Rubio probably realized that 鈥渢he Russians haven鈥檛 moved an inch,鈥� Stubb said, and there was 鈥渘o point in taking President Trump into a situation whereby he doesn鈥檛 get a deal or anything.鈥�
The cancellation was 鈥渁nother example of a strategic mistake by the Russians. They had an opportunity and they blew it,鈥� Stubb said.
Trump has swung back and forth between seeking and to him, and has done the same with . Stubb said he deals with any shifts by being 鈥渜uite patient鈥� and living with 鈥渞eality.鈥�
鈥淵ou can鈥檛 have illusions about things that you would like to see happening,鈥� the Finnish president said. 鈥淚鈥檝e tried personally to focus on things such as: We need security guarantees for Ukraine. How to build those? We need a ceasefire. How can we get that?
鈥淚t鈥檚 been a bit of a grind. I guess you need 鈥榮isu鈥� in these types of negotiations as well.”
But, he said, the work is paying off and the military options for guaranteeing Ukraine鈥檚 security once a ceasefire or peace negotiation is reached are now 鈥渃lear,鈥� with various countries having committed resources 鈥� although he declined to give more details, citing confidential military planning.
Despite some of Ukraine’s missteps, Stubb is unstinting in his praise for . 鈥淚 admire a lot of the things that he鈥檚 doing because to lead a country in a war … is existential. You learn a lot from other human beings in that situation,鈥� he said.
Stubb has Trump鈥檚 ear
When it comes to dealing with Donald Trump, Stubb is in a better position than many European leaders. In his youth, he studied in the United States on a golf scholarship, and the two spent about seven hours playing a round at Mar-a-Lago in March.
Golf was a 鈥渄oor-opener,鈥� and helped him create a bond with the U.S. president, he suggested. While Trump and Zelenskyy have a notoriously tempestuous relationship, Stubb said he and other European leaders can help act as a bridge between them.
鈥淲e interpret President Trump to President Zelenskyy and vice versa,鈥� he said.
But when it comes to Putin, only one person should negotiate directly and publicly with him and that鈥檚 Trump, Stubb indicated, suggesting the European Union is unlikely to open a direct channel of communication with the Russian leader any time soon.
Russian attacks in Europe
At the same time, Trump is leading negotiations with Putin, multiple European countries have faced , or , as well as and an alleged widespread .
Russia is not only conducting a kinetic war in Ukraine but also a hybrid war in Europe, Stubb told AP.
鈥淭he line between war and peace has been blurred,鈥� Stubb said
Russia, he said, is trying to destabilize Europe and 鈥渃ause havoc and panic,鈥� with attacks including arson, vandalism and propaganda.
The way to deal with those threats is to 鈥渂e Finnish,鈥� Stubb said.
鈥淚n other words, be cool, calm, collected and have a little bit of that 鈥榮isu.鈥欌��
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