BRUSSELS (AP) 鈥� Almost four years into Russia鈥檚 on Ukraine, have Kyiv鈥檚 economic and military needs for the next two years, one way or another. Ukraine is desperate and needs the money by early 2026.
At a summit next week, the 27 EU leaders will weigh whether to use tens of billions of dollars in held in Europe to help meet Ukraine鈥檚 requirements, which puts at 135 billion euros ($157 billion).
Such a move has never been done before, and it comes with risks. The European Central Bank has warned that if Europeans appear willing to grab other countries’ money, it could undermine confidence in the euro currency. Some member nations are also concerned about inviting retaliation from Russia.
Belgium, where most of the assets are held, is the main opponent of the plan. It鈥檚 fearful that Russia will strike back, either through the courts or in more nefarious ways. A series of drone incidents near airports and military bases last month suggested that the Kremlin was already doing so, but those responsible were never publicly identified.
European Council President Antonio Costa, who will chair the Dec. 18 summit, has insisted that the leaders should not leave EU headquarters in Brussels until they have reached a decision.
Two options await debate
EU leaders froze the money, most of it in Russian Central Bank assets, over the war that Putin launched in February 2022. Moscow has described the scheme as 鈥渢heft.鈥�
Two plans have emerged. The first would be a 鈥渞eparations loan鈥� that would use the Russian assets until Moscow agrees to pay for the damage inflicted on Ukraine. Few think Russian President Vladimir Putin will ever agree to pay reparations.
Plan B would be for the EU to borrow the money on financial markets, much as the bloc did to fund a massive European economies after the coronavirus pandemic.
Many of Europe鈥檚 major economies are cash strapped and mired in debt. But Russia鈥檚 war on Ukraine poses an existential threat to the bloc. Intelligence assessments suggest that Putin in three to five years should he defeat Ukraine.
The assets make up a substantial pot of potentially ready-to-use cash.
The European Commission, the EU鈥檚 executive branch, estimates that 210 billion ($244 billion) euros worth of frozen assets are currently held in Europe. The vast majority 鈥� around 193 billion euros ($225 billion) at the end of September 鈥� are held in the Belgian financial clearinghouse known as Euroclear.
There are political advantages too. Should the EU choose to use the assets, only 鈥渁 qualified majority鈥� of countries 鈥� around a two-thirds majority 鈥� would be required for a green light. Borrowing on financial markets would have to be endorsed by all, meaning that even a single no vote would sink the idea.
Over the last year, Hungary has at almost every turn. The government in is starting to dig in its heels as well. A new and stridently nationalist leader in the Czech Republic could further complicate the decision.
Avoiding a veto is in the interest of the vast majority of member countries.
Details of the reparations loan
Unveiling her plan on Dec. 4, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would cover two-thirds of Ukraine鈥檚 needs for 2026 and 2027, for a total of 90 billion euros ($105 billion). International partners would fill the gap.
Due to EU sanctions on Russia鈥檚 assets, cash balances have accumulated at Euroclear. They鈥檝e generated interest 鈥� some 3.9 billion euros ($4.5 billion) this year, Euroclear says 鈥� which is already being used to fund a Group of Seven for Ukraine.
Under the new plan, some of the cash would be transferred to an EU debt instrument. Ukraine would owe the EU the money but would repay only after the bloc鈥檚 sanctions are lifted and after Russia agrees to pay war reparations.
The commission insists that there is no 鈥渢heft,鈥� as Russia has claimed, because the right of the Russian Central Bank to make a claim on its money and Euroclear鈥檚 duty to repay will remain intact.
Once Putin pays war reparations, Ukraine would repay the EU, the EU would repay Euroclear, and Euroclear would repay the Russian Central Bank.
Opposition from Belgium
Importantly for Belgium, the plan contains safeguards to ensure that the risks would be shared by its partners. Other EU countries would offer to guarantee the loan if something went wrong. Germany has already signaled that it would do so.
But the Belgian government has not been assuaged. Even before the commission’s reparations loan plan was made public, Foreign Minister Maxime Pr茅vot said that it 鈥渆ntails consequential economic, financial and legal risks.鈥�
Pr茅vot said Belgium 鈥� a strong backer of Ukraine that has provided military and financial support 鈥� feels that its concerns are not being heard by its EU partners.
鈥淲e are not seeking to antagonize our partners or Ukraine. We are simply seeking to avoid potential disastrous consequences for a member state that is being asked to show solidarity without being offered the same solidarity in return,鈥� he said.
In an interview with Belgian public broadcaster RTBF last week, Euroclear CEO Valerie Urbain also said that court action could not be ruled out should the EU oblige the clearinghouse to transfer its Russian assets.
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