WASHINGTON 鈥� Far fewer people are riding Metro over the first half of Metro鈥檚 budget year, a drop that is much steeper than the last several years of rider decreases and is contributing to a projected $125 million revenue shortfall for Metro by the budget year鈥檚 end in June.
Combined rail and bus ridership is down nine percent over the same time period one year ago, a drop of 16 million trips; rail ridership is down 12 percent. Compared with the peak in 2009, rail ridership is down by well over 100,000 trips each weekday.
Metro had forecast a ridership increase in its budget despite a trend of years of declines, so the financial impact is even more significant, with projections now calling for $921 million in net subsidies from Maryland, Virginia and D.C. compared with the $845 million agreed to under the budget approved last March.
General Manager Paul Wiedefeld told reporters Tuesday that the additional money would come from sources including past years鈥� surpluses.
鈥淩idership was down broadly across all time periods, days of the week, and individual stations. Consequently, rail revenue was down 14 percent versus prior year and was 17 percent under budget through the second quarter. Parking revenue remained 11 percent below prior year and was below budget by 13 percent,鈥� documents prepared for the Metro Board鈥檚 Finance Committee read.
Metro estimates the direct revenue loss from 24/7 track work, which started last spring, at around $50 million; initial expectations were $40 million. Wiedefeld emphasized that the projects that can help avoid some serious safety incidents must continue.
Revenues are $65 million below budget expectations so far. Metro says it has cut $59 million from the operating budget in the first six months of the budget year: Power and fuel costs are lower than expected due to lower rates and a reduction in trains thanks to the 24/7 work zones, and there have been some other back office savings.
Regional leaders expect some more cost-cutting measures; increased local contributions and next year, along with some agreement on proposed for the year starting July 1 to get the agency into 2018.
The projected significant increases after that in requests聽for operating money and the capital projects needed to keep Metro running聽has much of the region is 鈥� pitting money for Metro against other high priorities such as schools or police.
Wiedefeld would not specifically say that, but suggested fiscal year 2019 could be a make-or-break year for Metro.
鈥淲e cannot be eliminating 1,000 jobs a year 鈥� that鈥檚 just not a solution. But what I鈥檓 trying to do is maximize everything we can in terms of efficiency 鈥� but at some point there鈥檚 nothing left for me to go to, and we鈥檙e fast approaching that,鈥� Wiedefeld said.
He hopes safety work to transform the system could eventually bring riders back, even if that requires continued single-tracking or station closures at certain times. With more people teleworking and other changes, though, even if ridership recovers somewhat, there could be a 鈥渘ew normal.鈥�
Bus ridership declined by six percent year-over-year in the six months from July to December, a drop of four million trips.
鈥淐onsequently, bus revenue was down 11 percent versus prior year and was 14 percent below budget for the quarter. Ridership at other local bus operators in the region has also declined during this period, indicating broader economywide causes that are not unique to Metro,鈥� the documents say.
Some bright spots for the bus system include growing ridership on the relatively new Metroway bus rapid transit system in Arlington and Alexandria that an initial proposal for the coming year had suggested cutting, and growth on the bus routes to and from National Harbor.
But in December, for the first time since 2010, average weekday bus ridership fell below 370,000.
A budget presentation suggests Metro could consider furloughing some workers, but Wiedefeld said that would be difficult since furloughs would likely impact service. More budget cuts could be suggested in coming months.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 what we鈥檙e left with, we have either service reductions we have to take or we have to figure out some other ways to come up with some dollars to support it,鈥� Wiedefeld said.
Metro is spending more than ever on capital projects meant to keep the system from deteriorating further, although much of the accelerated spending is tied to manufacturer Kawasaki catching up on delivery of the new 7000 Series trains after years of delays.
Metro says it spent $599 million in capital funds from July to December 2016, and expects to spend more than the budgeted $1.1 billion by the fiscal year鈥檚 end in June. Much of the increase is due to the 7000 Series trains arriving at around 20 cars per month now after years of delays. Metro says it spent $84.1 million on track work in the first half of the budget year, including the 24/7 track work.
The Metro Board would have to approve any increase in capital budget spending this spring. The board is also expected to approve the operating budget for the year beginning July 1 that would include service cuts and fare hikes.
Metro hopes a review in April of the Metropolitan Washington Council of Government鈥檚 Transportation Planning Board鈥檚 role in Metro鈥檚 financial needs could be another step toward some type of more stable regional funding plan.
