By Rich Johnson, 草莓传媒 草莓传媒
WASHINGTON 鈥斅燘race yourself for no big surprises Tuesday when Virginia Republicans and Democrats decide who they want to represent their parties in the November Presidential election.
A 聽鈥� which was released Thursday ahead of the GOP debate 鈥� gives Donald Trump a commanding lead in Virginia: 41 percent of likely GOP voters say they back Trump, compared to 25 percent for Marco Rubio, 14 percent for Ted Cruz, 7 percent for John Kasich and 7 percent for Ben Carson.
Hillary Clinton nearly doubles up Bernie Sanders in the Monmouth poll, with 60 percent of the Democratic support compared to 33 percent for Sanders.
While the outcomes may be clear, the stakes are high 鈥� especially for Republicans.
For Trump, the commonwealth offers a chance to show that his nearly 46 percent win in the Nevada caucuses was no fluke for a candidate whose hard-core base has remained fairly steady at about 35 percent.
鈥淐an he grow that 35 percent,鈥� asks Dan Palazzolo, professor of political science at the University of Richmond. 鈥淚s Nevada鈥檚 big win an indication of times to come, or is it an outlier? I think we don鈥檛 know the answer to that yet. If he can press 40 percent in Virginia, that鈥檚 pretty impressive.鈥�
One of Trump鈥檚 top challengers, Marco Rubio, needs Super Tuesday to yield something he鈥檚 yet to find: victory.
鈥淵ou need to win somewhere. That鈥檚 the important thing,鈥� says Geoffrey Skelley, political analyst at the University of Virginia鈥檚 Center for Politics.
鈥淚f [Rubio’s] going to win a primary on Super Tuesday, Virginia is the state he should target. It鈥檚 understandable then that he鈥檚 going to 鈥� all across the state, hitting every part of it,鈥� he聽says.
鈥淥bviously his campaign understands that Virginia is a state that is better suited for him than some of the others that are going on Super Tuesday,鈥� Skelley聽adds.
Palazzolo agrees.
鈥淓xceeding expectations will help Rubio, but winning the state would be a huge boost to his campaign,鈥� he says.
It鈥檚 a boost that Rubio desperately needs 鈥� especially now that the senator from Florida is .
Florida鈥檚 primary is still two weeks away, but it’s crunchtime for Ted Cruz.
鈥淚f Cruz can鈥檛 win Texas, then he鈥檚 got to make a decision about whether he stays in the race,鈥� Palazzolo says.
And when it comes to the big picture for Republicans, Palazzolo is blunt: 鈥淭uesday鈥檚 probably the last chance for any Republicans to become really competitive and slow down Trump鈥檚 momentum.”
鈥淚f Donald Trump continues to rack up wins across different types of states with this plurality that he has, he鈥檚 really going to be 鈥� imposing a choice on Republican voters鈥� Palazzolo says.
