WASHINGTON 鈥� With four key cogs headed to free agency this offseason, the Washington Nationals鈥� window of contention as a World Series front-runner past this season remains uncertain. Two of those pieces are Doug Fister and Jordan Zimmermann, key members of a starting rotation that recently posted a 48-inning scoreless streak. And while the prospect of replacing either or both of them next season, and in the years to come, may be daunting, one prospect in particular seems poised to make the next big splash in D.C.
Lucas Giolito has looked the part of a star ever since he arrived at Nationals Park after being drafted in 2012. At 6 feet, 6 inches and with broad shoulders, he towers over teammates. He had the type of velocity and pure stuff in high school 鈥� ticking triple digits on radar guns and breaking off 12-6 hammer curves 鈥� usually reserved for far more developed athletes. And he had a preternatural comfort with the spotlight, especially for a kid who had just turned 18 when he was introduced.
Some of his disposition can be explained by his family background. Growing up in the shadow of Hollywood, Giolito鈥檚 mother, father and grandfather are all actors. Other members of the family are involved in the industry as writers. So it should be no surprise the 20-year-old Giolito shines with the focus on him.
鈥淟ucas Giolito has been in the spotlight for a long time,鈥� says J.J. Cooper, managing editor for Baseball America, who has known the hurler鈥檚 name since high school. 鈥淗e鈥檚 used to that kind of spotlight.鈥�
Giolito is just the latest top Nationals prospect to garner the national hype heaped upon top prospects this day and age. With the prospect resources of publications such as BA, MLB.com鈥檚 Pipeline and others online and available to any baseball fan, prospects can achieve a cult following before they ever appear in a big-league uniform. Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper have both walked that road prior to Giolito, blazing a clearer trail through the jungle of obstacles between the draft and The Show.
While he hasn鈥檛 specifically leaned on Strasburg or Harper when it comes to the pressure away from the diamond, he has tried to tap into the collective knowledge of those ahead of him in the system when it comes to refining his craft.
鈥淚鈥檝e been able to talk a little bit of pitching with some of the big-league guys,鈥� Giolito says. 鈥淗opefully when I go to big-league camp next spring training I鈥檒l get the chance to pick their brains more about that.鈥�
As for the attention, there鈥檚 an odd dichotomy to being a top prospect in the minors. The autograph hounds may be a little more aggressive around you, but most fans in the Carolina League don鈥檛 know the bonus babies from the organizational depth. You get to live in day-to-day obscurity, even while your photo appears on the cover of national publications.
鈥淭he biggest thing is you try not to read about yourself too much,鈥� Giolito says. 鈥淏ecause a lot of people will speculate on hype, speculate on future stuff versus what you have now. The point of being here in the minor leagues is to develop your stuff and prepare yourself to pitch at the big-league level.鈥�
Cooper doesn鈥檛 think there鈥檚 much speculation necessary.
鈥淚t鈥檚 been a long time since anyone needed to project on Lucas Giolito,鈥� he says. 鈥淏oth his fastball and curveball are very close to 鈥� if not at the top of 鈥� the scale on the scouting scale.鈥�
A cursory glance at Giolito鈥檚 3-4 record and 3.08 ERA this season may not impress the amateur scouts among us. But his peripheral numbers are eye-popping once again. In 52.2 innings pitched, he鈥檚 struck out 66 while walking just 14, better than a 4:1 ratio. And while opponents have hit .251 against Giolito 鈥� up from his .203 career average prior to this year 鈥� he hasn鈥檛 given up a single home run.
He鈥檚 struck out eight or more four times, and allowed more than two walks just once. As for why he鈥檚 struggled at times, he believes the competition just hasn鈥檛 allowed him to get away with location errors.
鈥淕uys take advantage of mistakes more here,鈥� Giolito says of Advanced A ball. 鈥淚t鈥檚 like 95 (miles per hour) is the new 90. If, back in the day, throwing 90 made you a pretty hard thrower, now it鈥檚 鈥榃hatever, no one cares.鈥欌��
If there鈥檚 any reason to be concerned about this year鈥檚 still-small sample, it鈥檚 that righties seem to be hitting Giolito notably harder than in the past. But he鈥檚 allowed just 12 extra-base hits all season, so those numbers aren鈥檛 nearly as alarming as they might otherwise be. Cooper echoes Giolito鈥檚 assessment of what the difference has been, and what he needs to improve to progress.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think there鈥檚 anything that I would look at what he鈥檚 done this year and say, 鈥楾hat鈥檚 a problem,鈥欌�� Cooper says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 just continued maturation, continued refinement of control. The ability to locate 鈥� not just throw strikes, to throw to the area that you want to throw them 鈥� is the last thing to come along.鈥�
Blessed with every physical gift he could ask for, Giolito is also striving to get mentally stronger. While he鈥檚 faced the adversity of a Tommy John surgery and rehabilitation process, he has rarely struggled on the mound before this year. But he seems to have an awareness of what鈥檚 gone wrong, and what needs to come next.
鈥淢y start (a few) weeks ago, I was kind of letting emotions affect me,鈥� he recalls. 鈥淚 was giving up some — I guess you could say cheap hits, like broken bats, swinging bunts. And those would kind of get to me, and I would lose control. Then I鈥檇 leave one up, and a guy would hit a double.鈥�
Giolito describes refining his psychological approach the same way he is doing with his physical one.
鈥淚t鈥檚 just a process of trying to get as close to perfection on the physical side, working on mechanics, repeating your pitches,鈥� he says. 鈥淎nd on the mental side, having that mentality that you鈥檙e going to be able to make pitches and get everyone out.鈥�
He nearly got everyone out Wednesday night, throwing seven no-hit innings while walking just one and fanning seven. Thanks to performances like that, you likely won鈥檛 be able to see Giolito in Woodbridge for too much longer. But it shouldn鈥檛 be long before you can see him in Washington.
鈥淚f [the Nationals] needed a guy to get an out in the seventh inning right now, he could do that,鈥� says Cooper. 鈥淗e has the stuff to do that.鈥�
More realistically, Giolito could be a part of the mix as soon as next season, and if all goes according to plan, be a stalwart in the rotation in 2017 and beyond.
