WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥� With a between the U.S. and Iran , China is calculating its role in helping find a durable endgame to the war in the Middle East.
After prodding China, which is more than the U.S., to get involved in reopening the , President Donald Trump told the French news outlet Agence France-Presse this week that he believed in encouraging Iran to agree to this week鈥檚 temporary truce.
Three diplomats who were familiar with China鈥檚 behind-the-scenes efforts also confirmed that Beijing, the biggest , used its leverage to urge the Iranians back to the negotiating table.
It was a major moment for Beijing, which had decried the U.S. and Israel鈥檚 war against its economic partner Iran as misguided before getting directly involved in the push to , including discouraging strikes by Iran. Talks between the sides are expected to begin in Pakistan this weekend.
With the precarious truce hanging in the balance, China will now need to make a careful calculation about whether it will tread deeper into the waters of diplomacy as its weighs the impact that a long-lasting war could have on . Middle East turmoil goes against Beijing鈥檚 interests, while its efforts may boost its global standing and strengthen its hand in negotiating during next month.
鈥淏eijing is not in the business of expending its leverage as a favor to others or for the greater good,鈥� said Danny Russel, a former senior diplomat in President Barack Obama鈥檚 administration.
Iran war puts pressure on China鈥檚 economy
Mao Ning, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, told reporters this week that China 鈥渉as worked actively to help bring about an end to the conflict.鈥�
The Chinese economy is already feeling pressure from , where about 20% of the world鈥檚 crude normally flows. The blockade is having an , a factor that seems to have informed the Chinese government鈥檚 efforts to consult with Pakistan to help mediate a two-week ceasefire.
China does not appear interested in providing guarantees for Iran鈥檚 long-term security as part of a deal to end hostilities, something Tehran has hoped for and sees as critical to deterring the U.S and Israel from carrying out strikes in the future.
Iran鈥檚 ambassador to China suggested this week that its two closest allies 鈥� China and Russia 鈥� as well as ensure the guarantee, which Tehran has sought before without success. Asked about that possibility, Mao would only say that 鈥渨e hope that all parties will resolve their disputes through dialogue and negotiation.鈥�
Still, Chinese officials are cognizant that a lasting war threatens to have real impact on Beijing鈥檚 bottom line. Premier Li Qiang announced last month that the government was this year during a property slump and growing uncertainty around the globe. It鈥檚 the lowest growth target since 1991.
Ultimately, China鈥檚 foremost goal is 鈥済rowth and development,鈥� according to one of the diplomats familiar with Chinese deliberations on the war.
The diplomat, who like the others was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, added that a continued closure of the strait ran counter to that interest. It not only limits the flow of a significant supply of crude to China but also cuts off an important shipping lane for Chinese exports to the Mideast.
How Iran diplomacy could play into the Trump-Xi meeting
Trump will likely underscore that argument to Chinese President Xi Jinping during their much-anticipated Beijing summit next month. The talks, which were originally slated for this month, were pushed back so Trump could oversee the U.S. bombardment of Iran.
鈥淭hat the United States and Iran have at least temporarily edged away from the precipice of a catastrophic escalation owes in part to China鈥檚 support for the ceasefire that Pakistan brokered,鈥� said Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser for U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group. 鈥淓ven if short-lived, that breakthrough affords Beijing another opportunity to present itself as a stabilizing force and Washington as a reckless one.鈥�
To be certain, China鈥檚 view is shaped by a heavy measure of skepticism.
Some in Beijing see Trump鈥檚 decision to launch the Iran war, as well as the military operation in January to , as being at least partially motivated by his strategy at containing China, diplomats say. Beijing was a in the South American country鈥檚 oil industry.
Privately, the Chinese have made clear that the U.S. and Iran would have to show compromise for a deal to coalesce. Beijing also is looking to press Trump to remove sanctions on Chinese companies doing business with Iran as part of a potential settlement, diplomats say.
The moment provides Xi some leverage at next month鈥檚 summit.
鈥淭rump was in a crisis, and China helped,鈥� said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Washington-based think tank Stimson Center. 鈥淭he optics of that alone helps to lighten the mood and sweeten the pot.鈥�
Russel, the former State Department official, says there are signs that Beijing sees Trump as weakened after the president didn鈥檛 follow through on his and other critical infrastructure if Iran didn鈥檛 end its blockade of Hormuz.
The hashtag #HeChickenedOut was trending on Chinese social media in posts about Trump, and China鈥檚 state media was promoting the message that he blinked in the face of Iranian resistance, Russel said.
Xi, for his part, appears to be approaching the moment carefully.
鈥淏eijing鈥檚 calculation is wait-and-see, safeguard Chinese energy and commercial interests, avoid direct confrontation with the United States, stay on good terms with its important Gulf partners like Saudi Arabia and UAE, and work with whoever ends up running Iran when the dust settles,鈥� Russel said.
Steve Bannon, who served as a senior adviser to Trump during his first term, said Trump will need to press Xi to buy in if he hopes to seal an enduring peace agreement with Iran.
鈥淲ho can actually make a deal and enforce a deal? I know one group of people who can do it, and they live in Beijing,鈥� Bannon said on his 鈥淲ar Room鈥� podcast this week. He added, 鈥淟et鈥檚 just go to Beijing and sit down with a guy who can actually make a deal 鈥� Xi 鈥� and enforce a deal.鈥�
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Amiri reported from the United Nations.
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