SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) 鈥� As U.S. President pushes for change in Cuba鈥檚 leadership, speculation is mounting about who, if anyone, might replace Cuban President .
As Ra煤l Castro’s handpicked largely figurehead successor in 2018, D铆az-Canel has been the only leader without the last name Castro to govern since the 1959 revolution. He still has two years left in his term 鈥�- but some experts and a growing number of Cubans doubt he’ll make it.
Two Castro cousins have come into focus as potential replacements, experts said.
Oscar P茅rez-Oliva Fraga 鈥� Ra煤l Castro鈥檚 55-year-old great nephew 鈥� has shot to power since emerging from obscurity several years ago. He became minister of Cuba鈥檚 influential Ministry of Foreign Trade and Investment in May 2024 and was appointed the island鈥檚 deputy prime minister in October.
By contrast, Ra煤l Guillermo Rodr铆guez Castro 鈥� Ra煤l Castro鈥檚 grandson 鈥� has never occupied a government post, having served as his grandfather鈥檚 bodyguard and later as head of Cuba鈥檚 equivalent of the U.S. Secret Service. He has long been known as 鈥淩aulito,鈥� or 鈥淟ittle Ra煤l鈥� and is new to the spotlight cast on high-ranking government officials.
But he made news last month when he secretly met on the sidelines of a Caribbean Community summit in St. Kitts with . At the time, Rubio refused to say who he was speaking to in the Cuban government.
鈥淭he role Raulito is playing right now is the connection between Ra煤l Castro and whoever is on the U.S. side,鈥� said Sebasti谩n Arcos, interim director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University. 鈥淗e enjoys the absolute trust of Ra煤l Castro.鈥�
But, Arcos and other experts argue, even should someone with the Castro pedigree take the presidency, little is likely to change.
鈥淧arty leadership doesn鈥檛 mean anything in Cuba,鈥� Arcos said. 鈥淭he party is just a hollow fa莽ade. The real power resides in the military, under Ra煤l Castro.鈥�
The 94-year-old remains at the helm as general, appears at key events and is considered the most powerful person in , a country subject to more than six decades of absolute rule, first by revolutionary leader Fidel Castro, and then for the past decade, his younger brother Ra煤l.
And that is unlikely to change.
鈥淭he most significant thing that we have to consider for the last 30 years in Cuba is the absolute reluctance of this regime to implement serious structural economic reforms,鈥� Arcos said. 鈥淎sking them for political reforms would be too much.鈥�
One Castro cousin is described as a technocrat
P茅rez-Oliva studied electrical engineering before becoming director general of an import company and then business director within Cuba鈥檚 Mariel Special Development Zone. That鈥檚 all the Cuban government has officially shared on P茅rez-Oliva.
Online, there are barely traces of him; he doesn鈥檛 even have a Wikipedia page. His X account is private and inscribed with this sentiment: 鈥淐ommitted to the Revolution and to the ideas of FIDEL.鈥�
P茅rez-Oliva until only recently became a public figure, traveling with Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodr铆guez to Russia and Vietnam earlier this year. He also made a public appearance in early February, when a massive blackout . While other high-ranking officials solely blamed , P茅rez-Oliva acknowledged otherwise.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 want to justify ourselves with the blockade; there are a number of internal deficiencies,鈥� he said in a TV interview with state media.
A key achievement came in December, when P茅rez-Oliva was named a deputy within Cuba鈥檚 National Assembly Popular Power 鈥� a requirement for any Cuban president.
Carlos M. Rodr铆guez Arechavaleta, a Cuba expert and professor at the Iberoamerican University in Mexico City, said P茅rez-Oliva has the profile of a technocrat with commercial negotiation skills. 鈥淭his could be a more ideological figure 鈥� a more technocratic, potentially reformist-oriented official,鈥� he said.
Arcos said he believes that D铆az-Canel could 鈥渧ery well be replaced鈥� by P茅rez-Oliva.
鈥淭his man looks more proper, more polished. He has been through more important positions,鈥� Arcos said. 鈥淭his is a family business.鈥�
Known as Raulito, this cousin was a fixture on Cuba’s party scene
Rodr铆guez Castro is the son of Ra煤l Castro鈥檚 oldest daughter, and his father is Luis Alberto Rodr铆guez L贸pez-Calleja 鈥� one of Cuba鈥檚 most powerful figures who ran GAESA, , before his in July 2022.
In his youth, Rodr铆guez Castro became a fixture at Cuba鈥檚 music and party scenes. During his public appearances, people would poke each other with an elbow and whisper, 鈥楾hat鈥檚 El Cangrejo鈥� 鈥� a nickname that means 鈥淭he Crab,鈥� because he was born with an extra finger.
He went to military school and became Ra煤l Castro鈥檚 bodyguard, accompanying him on trips abroad. Rodr铆guez Castro was later promoted to head of the Cuban equivalent of the U.S. Secret Service, but with a mission to spy on the country鈥檚 leadership, Arcos said.
Then, on March 13, experts noted that Rodr铆guez Castro was present at a government meeting with D铆az-Canel, when he announced that . He also was present at the news conference that followed.
It was a rare public appearance tied to government business 鈥� and drew some public scrutiny from ordinary Cubans.
鈥淭he Crab doesn鈥檛 have a position there, so I don鈥檛 know why he was there,鈥� said 20-year-old Maday Beltr谩n Acosta. 鈥淧eople posted a lot of comments about it.鈥�
Beltr谩n Acosta said she also is bothered by Rodr铆guez Castro鈥檚 social media posts because they feature 鈥渁bundant food.鈥�
鈥淭he people are suffering while he enjoys life,鈥� she said.
But Arcos said he doesn鈥檛 believe Rodr铆guez Castro could be Cuba鈥檚 next president, at least in public, because his name would reflect a continuation of the island’s current leadership, not a change as demanded by Trump and Rubio.
鈥淗e cannot be the transitional figure,鈥� Arcos said, 鈥渂ecause his last name disqualifies him.鈥�
鈥淣ot up for negotiation鈥�
While speculation remains rampant over whether Cuba before D铆az-Canel鈥檚 term expires, experts note he is an unpopular leader.
He ordered a crackdown following the that stemmed from food shortages, the largest of their kind in decades.
Under D铆az-Canel, Cuba鈥檚 have deepened.
鈥淭he living conditions of the population are on the verge of a humanitarian crisis,鈥� said Rodr铆guez Arechavaleta. 鈥淭he social situation is already unsustainable.鈥�
Arcos added: 鈥淗e鈥檚 a man with a pot belly in a country where everybody is trying to find (something) to eat.鈥�
Last week, refuted comments about a possible change in the political system or the departure of D铆az-Canel as part of ongoing talks with the U.S.
鈥淭he Cuban political system is not up for negotiation, nor is the president, nor the position of any official in Cuba, subject to negotiation with the United States or with the government of any other country,鈥� Fern谩ndez de Coss铆o told reporters.
Arcos, the Cuban expert, said he cannot imagine Ra煤l Castro relinquishing power but believes D铆az-Canel could be replaced, referring to him as 鈥渁 gray apparatchik鈥� within the party when he was appointed president.
He noted that Castro’s eventual death 鈥渨ould be the kind of shock that would crack the regime.”
鈥淣o one really knows who鈥檚 coming up to replace him,鈥� Arcos said. 鈥淔or the first time ever in Cuba, you have the possibility of several people struggling for power.鈥�
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Associated Press reporter Milexsy Dur谩n in Havana contributed.
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